Throughout 2024, the once beloved Secret Lair sub-brand has fallen from grace somewhat. Previously, Secret Lair drops were lauded for their gorgeous art, compelling reprints, and wide availability. Now, two of these three principles have all but disappeared, and the brand is undoubtedly worse off for it.
The problems all started when Wizards of the Coast moved from the print-to-demand model to a limited-run sales strategy. Supposedly, this was done to speed up shipping times dramatically. Admittedly, this goal from Wizards has been achieved as cards can now be delivered in days, rather than months.
Despite this positive improvement, the Secret Lair brand has still been tarnished and the discontent toward it is only increasing. It’s high time that Wizards implements some long overdue fixes to the problems they created.
The Fall From Grace
The major problem currently plaguing Secret Lair drops is a severe lack of availability. Thanks to the new limited-run print model, Secret Lair drops are able to sell out. While this isn’t inherently a problem, one drop from each Superdrop has consistently sold out in a matter of hours. Considering that Superdrops go live at 9 AM PT, this poses a problem for a lot of MTG players.
Unless you’re able to access the website and place an order as soon as it goes live, you’re likely to miss out. This is disappointing for many MTG Players since these Secret Lair drops are selling out for a reason. Whether they’re part of a new crossover or boast a suite of Commander staples, players definitely want these drops.
Sadly, as if drops selling out weren’t bad enough, the limited supply has also caused secondary market values to skyrocket. Worryingly, this encourages scalpers and investors to hoard as many copies as they can get their hands on. This, in turn, worsens the already limited supply and shortens the window before drops sell out.
Frustratingly, this shouldn’t even be an issue. When Wizards first announced the shipping change, they touted their ability to predict demand. Stating they have “four years of Secret Lair sales to base our print-run numbers on” there shouldn’t have been problems. Even if Wizards did admit “popular Secret Lair drops may sell out fast,” there’s definitely such a thing as too fast.
Even if Wizards got it wrong once, there’s no reason they can’t increase print numbers. Demand is clearly high and seems to be increasing following incredibly flavorful Universes Beyond crossovers. The least Wizards could do is adjust the supply to stop drops selling out quite so quickly.
Regressing Reprints
While some Secret Lair drops have been selling out incredibly quickly, others persist until the timer runs down. Or they did before Wizards removed that feature too in an actually positive change. This lack of sales success appears to be down to a lack of value. Compared to past Superdrops, recent offerings have rarely broken even with raw reprint value.
Admittedly, the quality of the reprints is hardly the only deciding factor when it comes to a Secret Lair drop. As we’ve seen with the D&D Secret Lairs, art is more than capable of fueling demand and carrying hard. Similarly, low-value but popular cards can also sell out quickly. This is especially true for Commander staples.
That being said, MTG players like to get their money’s worth. Magic is by no means a cheap game to play and there’s always demand for quality needed reprints. Secret Lair used to be an avenue that allowed interested players to get their fill. Now, the limited-run printing means even good reprints are rather ineffective at lowering prices.
Technically, many drops do retain their overall value thanks to being limited-run now. Since the supply is reduced, prices have increased. Even cards from downright despised drops like Goblingram, which didn’t sell out, sell for steep premiums over their normal counterparts. While this is good news for investors, the initial raw reprint value is what matters more to actual players.
Hopefully, the lack of value we’ve been seeing recently is just a temporary trend that will turn around soon enough. That said, it appears that Wizards has realized that reprint equity is no longer mandatory for a Secret Lair sale. Instead, crossovers are the real golden goose, so we may be seeing even more of those going forward.
The Right Way
Currently, we can’t say that the limited-run print model isn’t working. For Wizards, this has been an outright success. Not only have they likely cut printing costs, but sales selling out quickly means they get plenty of money. That being said, there’s still room for improvement that could benefit everyone.
From Wizards’ perspective, Secret Lairs selling out in hours means money is being left on the table. Across social media, there is no end of posts from disappointed would-be customers. Should Wizards want to make more money, it seems they could easily increase supply and cater to this currently missed audience.
Alternatively, Wizards could implement a new system that we’ve suggested before. While it would make printing more confusing, there’s little reason Wizards couldn’t do both limited-run and print-to-demand. This would be the best of both worlds that makes everyone as happy as possible.
By keeping the limited run printing, many MTG players could acquire their cards very quickly. Following this, the print-to-demand model could kick in, allowing additional orders to be placed. While these would take some time to be delivered, money wouldn’t be left on the table and players wouldn’t miss out.
Sadly, while this seems like a sensible solution, it seems Wizards is going in the opposite direction. As mentioned earlier, the timer was recently reduced from Secret Lair sales, so they stick around until they sell out. Unless this change gets reverted, it seems the dual print model solution is out the window for now.
For now, we’re stuck with Secret Lair drops that are destined to sell out. This is a when, not an if, especially since there’s another Hatsune Miku crossover drop on the way. Hopefully, the next sale lasts for more than 2 hours.
