Coming December 16, we are expecting a major ban announcement to shake things up in our beloved game. While some formats are in reasonable shape, others (cough… Modern… cough…) feel quite stale. It seems pretty much inevitable that change is on the horizon.
With this announcement only a week away at this point, we thought it would be worthwhile to give our predictions for the bans. Of course, Wizards of the Coast is known for throwing some curveballs at us, so it’s definitely possible these end up missing the mark.
Still, based on the current states of each format and the reactions from the community at large, we believe these bans to be the most likely outcome. Let’s start with the elephant in the room: Modern.
Modern Ban Predictions
Modern has been in a rough spot since the release of Modern Horizons 3. Back in August, there was a glimmer of hope that once Nadu, Winged Wisdom was removed from the format, a more diverse metagame would settle in.
Unfortunately, no such thing happened. Instead, Boros Energy rose to stardom and has seen an unhealthy representation since. There has been a long window for players to adapt, but it hasn’t mattered. In fact, a recent Magic Online Modern Challenge featured 17 Energy decks in the top 19 results, which is absolutely mind-boggling.
It’s fairly clear that something out of the deck is going to get banned. The question is, what? For starters, The One Ring seems like an easy card to get rid of. Even beyond Energy decks, The One Ring has become an overly ubiquitous card. It’s the most played card in Modern by an enormous margin and shows up in a variety of decks for nothing more than power level alone.
The concern is that banning The One Ring doesn’t solve the blisteringly fast starts that Boros Energy is capable of. The Boros Energy shell has access to arguably the best one-drops in the format: Guide of Souls and Ocelot Pride, incredible removal in Galvanic Discharge and Phlage, Titan of Fire’s Fury, and elite value elements in The One Ring and Amped Raptor.
Removing The One Ring doesn’t stop Energy players from curving out. To keep these busted starts at bay, our best bet is that Wizards also bans Guide of Souls. Guide of Souls puts a ton of pressure on the opponent, but it also makes every Energy card in the deck a lot stronger. Its synergy with Ocelot Pride is off the charts.
Hopefully, removing Guide of Souls will successfully weaken the Modern Energy deck considerably. However, it shouldn’t necessarily outright kill the archetype. It’s plausible that Wizards will go a different route and ban Phlage or Amped Raptor. That said, with Guide of Souls being a one-drop that can spiral out of control, our prediction is that The One Ring and Guide of Souls bite the dust.
Legacy Ban Predictions
This brings us to Legacy. Legacy is the other major format that I expect big bans to be made. In a similar turn of events as Modern, the Legacy metagame drastically shifted once MH3 released. Dimir Reanimator was everywhere, to the point where tournament organizers were supposedly cancelling events over the summer due to lack of format support.
Once again, the ban of Grief was a step in the right direction. Yet, it was far from enough. According to MTGGoldfish, Dimir Reanimator and Dimir tempo (without the Entomb package) make up over 20% of the metagame. The common denominator across both decks that gives them incredible staying power is Psychic Frog.
Psychic Frog is a discard outlet, card advantage engine, and massive beater all in one. Just like The One Ring in Modern, this card is almost assuredly going to get banned. On top of that, though, there are some other cards that players believe should be banned.
First and foremost, we have Vexing Bauble. In a recent poll covering what players think should be banned in Legacy, Vexing Bauble and Psychic Frog stood head and shoulders above everything else.
As one person described, Vexing Bauble isn’t doing what it was intended to do. Rather than help stop unfair decks from casting too many free spells, the card has given rise to more unfair decks using Vexing Bauble to get around Force of Will. Following Eternal Weekend North America, where Mystic Forge decks dominated an enormous event with Vexing Bauble as a key piece of the puzzle, a ban wouldn’t be too surprising.
Other considerations for bans include The One Ring, Nadu, and Sowing Mycospawn. Overall, these cards seem less of a priority within the Legacy community. Wizards may decide to just ban The One Ring and Nadu from Legacy along with Modern due to the unfun play patterns they create. Given that they aren’t as homogenous in Legacy, though, we predict Psychic Frog and Vexing Bauble to get the axe. We wouldn’t be shocked to see Entomb go, either.
Standard and Pioneer Ban Predictions
We also wanted to briefly discuss Standard and Pioneer. In short, both of these formats are quite diverse. Any concerns about what Pioneer would look like after the Amalia and Sorin bans quickly disappeared.
Initially, players were worried Izzet Phoenix would take its place atop the Pioneer throne. By contrast, aggro decks earned their time in the spotlight. Bloomburrow further helped the aggro cause by giving us assertive staples like Emberheart Challenger.
Further metagame innovations arose with Duskmourn. Staples like Unholy Annex/Ritual Chamber completely revolutionized the Pioneer landscape. There are a ton of different decks people can play, and powerhouses like Treasure Cruise are far from having a chokehold on the format.
Meanwhile, current Standard is one of the most diverse and enjoyable iterations we’ve seen in years. Black midrange, red aggro, Convoke, mono-white token control, and Domain all have a place in the format, and the list of viable decks goes on. So, our prediction is that no changes will be announced for Standard and Pioneer.
Lastly, we wanted to mention that with ban announcements, we sometimes see cards unbanned. This time around, we don’t think any unbans will take place. Modern and Legacy are in dire need of bans, and we think Wizards will prioritize getting rid of problems rather than introducing risky cards back into their respective formats.
For Standard and Pioneer, there’s no real reason to mess with formats that are stable for the time being. As such, our final prediction is that The One Ring and Guide of Souls will be banned in Modern, Vexing Bauble and Psychic Frog will be banned in Legacy, and no changes will be made in Standard and Pioneer. Make sure to check in on December 16 for the full announcement.
