Jace, Wielder of Mysteries
7, Feb, 24

$300 Secret Lair Superdrop Offers Decidedly Dubious Value

Article at a Glance

After its own miniature spoiler season, the latest seasonal Secret Lair Superdrop is now live. Aptly named the Secret Lair Winter 2024 Superdrop, this drop offers the usual cavalcade of gorgeous reprints and first-time foilings. As if this wasn’t enough to get excited about, Wizards is throwing a wrench into the works this time out.

In order to speed up Secret Lair shipping, Wizards of the Coast has sacrificed availability. For the first time, the Winter 2024 Superdrop is a limited-run sale, with only so many copies of each Secret Lair drop available. While we haven’t been told the exact print numbers, this completely changes the game, as FOMO can completely take over.

With scalpers and value hunters to contend with, acquiring the latest Secret Lair cards may no longer be an easy feat. That will be the case, at least, provided that the six new Secret Lairs sell out ahead of schedule. Currently, it remains to be seen whether or not that will happen, as nothing has sold out quite yet.

Beyond the FOMO gripping players, the new limited-run distribution will likely also affect secondary market prices. Once again, the extent of this is currently unknown, since we don’t know how scarce each Secret Lair is. Depending on supply, these new reprints could be massively volatile, but that too remains to be seen.

Ultimately, thanks to the Winter 2024 Superdrop being limited-run, getting your money’s worth is more important than ever to some players. Thankfully, we’re here to make sure you can do exactly that with a complete financial breakdown of the Winter 2024 Superdrop! Before we get into all the juicy details, however, there are a few things to address first.

As Always, Art Matters

Simian Spirit Guide
Simian Spirit Guide | Secret Lair

While we say this every time, for Secret Lair drops, there’s no denying that art matters. Since these cards feature some of the most striking and visually distinct art in MTG, each card isn’t everyone’s favorite. As a result of this, the post-release secondary market demand for these cards can vary significantly.

Should a card be a cult classic or commander staple, prices of Secret Lair variants can balloon massively. Alternatively, if the majority of players really don’t like the art, secondary market values may reflect that. Ultimately, predicting the future of the secondary market accurately is practically impossible. As a result, we can only look at current prices right now.

When looking at prices, we’ll be highlighting the current market price on TCGplayer for each card. Alongside this important detail, we’ll also only be looking at the cheapest variants available. This does not factor art on demand into account, however, we may make note of this on occasion during each section.

Last but not least, within the Winter 2024 Superdrop, a few cards get foil treatments for the first time. As you might expect, pricing these new prints is practically impossible, so we’re not even going to attempt it. Subsequently, during our value calculation tables, entirely new treatments will be listed as N/A as they’re non-applicable.

Now, with all those boring ol’ caveats out of the way, it’s time to get into all the fun stuff! So, without any further ado, here’s the complete financial breakdown of the Secret Lair Winter 2024 Superdrop!

Just Add Milk: Second Helpings

Just Add Milk Second Helpings

To kick things off on a positive note, Just Add Milk: Second Helpings is the best Secret Lair of the Superdrop. Offering compelling non-foil and foil value, from a value perspective, this drop is an absolute win. As if that wasn’t enticing enough, the cereal-box art style is rather beloved by fans, potentially increasing its value future.

Within this drop, the star card is undoubtedly Sakashima of a Thousand Faces. Capable of becoming a copy of any creature you control, the utility of Sakashima practically knows no bounds. As if that wasn’t enough, they also turn off the “legend rule,” allowing for all manner of combo shenanigans.

On their own, Sakashima of a Thousand Faces sells for around $29, practically paying for the Secret Lair themselves. Adding even more value, Adrix and Nev Twincasters is also a great $13 hit. While their price is high at the moment, there’s a good chance it will drop in the coming weeks. This is thanks to a new reprint in the Murders at Karlov Manor Commander decks.

Outside of these two cards, unfortunately, Krark the Thumbless and Yargle Glutton of Urborg are far less financially interesting. The only remaining upside is Krark having a $5 value as a foil. Similarly being a Partner Commander, this Goblin works wonders with Sakashima, so their value may be intertwined.

Overall, the Just Add Milk: Second Helpings Secret Lair drop is undoubtedly the best from the Winter 2024 Superdrop. Whether you’re looking at the non-foil or foil variant, you really can’t go wrong. Out of all the Secret Lair drops in this release, this one is the most likely to sell out first.

Hard-Boiled Thrillers

Hard-Boiled Thrillers

While the new cereal-themed Secret Lair may be the overall all-star, there’s no beating Hard-Boiled Thrillers for foil value. Themed around the mystery noir books of old, this Secret Lair drop is certainly unique. The same is true of this SLD’s prices, as they’re absolutely all over the place.

When looking at non-foil prices, Hard-Boiled Thrillers just about break even thanks to two core cards. Costing $10 and $12 apiece, both [tooltips[Dire Undercurrents and Reconnaissance are great hits. Below this, the $3 Jace, Wielder of Mysteries and $4 Black Market aren’t bad either.

As if a break-even non-foil value wasn’t enough, the foil prices for the Hard-Boiled Thrillers drop is absolutely insane. This is entirely thanks to Black Market, which has only been printed in foil once before. Released at a time when foils were rather rare, now foil copies of Black Market sell for $116! On top of this, Reconnaissance has never had a foil printing before!

On the surface, these prices seem to be absolute bombs that make this Secret Lair drop a clear no-brainer. Unfortunately, in reality, the secondary market value of the new variants may be sorely lacking. Due to how good these prices seem, players may snap up foil copies incredibly quickly, leading to an excess supply. Since this Secret Lair is a limited run, however, it’s unclear how much supply there is.

Ultimately, from both a foil and non-foil perspective, Hard-Boiled Thrillers still appears to be a great Secret Lair. For better or worse, however, the limited-run supply of this SLD will be the make-or-break factor. Since this drop’s best reprints are rather old, any supply issues could be solved to a fault. 

Showcase: Murders at Karlov Manor

Showcase Murders at Karlov Manor

As the Showcase Secret Lair for this Superdrop, Showcase: Murders at Karlov Manor continues the main set’s themes. Utilizing the Showcase Dossier card style, the additional cards within this drop should provide some fun extra flavor. Unfortunately, while flavor is always nice, from a value perspective, this drop is rather terrible.

Drawing the ire of MTG fans online, the Showcase: Murders at Karlov Manor drop is worth just over $9. Considering the $29.99 asking price, it’s hard to say this drop is anything close to a good deal. As a result of this dismal value, we wouldn’t be surprised if this Secret Lair drop defies expectations and doesn’t sell out.

To note the value itself, only Vilis, Broker of Blood has any real value. Selling for around $7.50, the new variants of this Commander option could become fairly sought-after. The same is potentially true for each card in this drop since they’re potential Commanders. Since there’s no guarantee of positive value, it seems unwise to bank on that prospect.

Sadly, when it comes to foil value, Showcase: Murders at Karlov Manor isn’t much better. Once again, Vilis, Broker of Blood is the only real card of note, being worth $14 as a foil. To bump up the disappointing value a little further, Grenzo, Dungeon Warden does sell for around $3.75. Nothing else in the drop is worth more than a dollar, making their inclusion within this drop rather controversial.

Prismatic Nightmares

Prismatic Nightmares

Beginning a rather disappointing trend, Prismatic Nightmares doesn’t even come close to breaking even as a non-foil drop. While there is some decent foil value, the nature of Secret Lair releases does make this somewhat dubious. Value aside, Prismatic Nightmares looks absolutely stunning and it’s great to see more artwork from Graham Yarrington.

To return to the financial breakdown, Prismatic Nightmares only has two cards worth more than $5. Both having never been reprinted before, these cards are Prince of Thralls and Rain of Filth. Outside of these two cards, Arcane Denial sells for around $3, but that’s effectively the end of the value.

Thankfully, while the non-foil prices may be a deluge of duds, the foil variants are a lot more enticing. Not only has Rain of Filth never had a foil print before, but Prince of Thralls is $30! On top of this, Simian Spirit Guide is an $11 foil, showing clear demand for fancy variants of this card.

As always since Secret Lair foils can be simply purchased for an added fee, their secondary market value is somewhat suspect. Despite this, the Prismatic Nightmares drop still seems rather enticing, as each card has fan-favorite appeal. Typically, this can cause Secret Lair values to heighten, but we won’t know by how much until cards are in players’ hands.

The Beauty of the Beasts

The Beauty of the Beasts

In the eyes of many MTG players, The Beauty of the Beasts Secret Lair drop is the best-looking by far. Featuring gorgeous artwork from Rowynn Ellis, players were wowed each time a new card was revealed. Judging by these reactions, this art may cause the Secret Lair to sell surprisingly well!

While The Beauty of the Beasts may look good, from a financial perspective this Secret Lair drop is hardly spectacular. Once again, in this drop, only two cards are really worth any value. These cards are Serpent of Yawning Depths and Voracious Hydra which sell for $8 and $4 respectively.

Outside of these Commander and Pioneer darlings, the value sadly tumbles rather heavily. Usually selling for around $1.50, there’s hardly overwhelming demand for Scourge of Valkas and Felidar Guardian. Even if Felidar Guardian is fairly beloved as a once troublesome combo engine, its time in Pioneer is well and truly passed.

Thankfully, while the non-foil value isn’t enticing, the prices of foil variants make up for this somewhat. This is especially true for Felidar Guardian, as the price shoots up to almost $10! Just behind this, Scourge of Valkas proves its fan-favorite status with a similarly decent $9 price tag. While Voracious Hydra rounds out the value at $5.50, the most interesting card by far is Serpent of Yawning Depths.

Having never been printed in foil before, this sea creature’s Typal card could hold some decent value as a foil. Once again, however, the true value of this card will depend on just how limited the limited run of this card is. Right now, since nothing has sold out, the demand for this Secret Lair is unknown.

Deceptive Divination

Deceptive Divination

Last, but by no means least, for the Winter 2024 Superdrop, we have Deceptive Divination. Boasting barely ten dollars worth of reprints, this Secret Lair is sorely lacking in the reprint department. Even the foil value from this drop is lacking, as the foil reprints aren’t even worth $14 in total!

Out of his rather dire pile of reprints, Scheming Symmetry is the most valuable card. Selling for around $5 as a non-foil and $7 as a foil, there’s moderate demand for this rather risky card. The same is true of Price of Progress, which sees decent play, but has also been reprinted more.

While the reprints within this Secret Lair may be lacking, Deceptive Divination is notable for a rather unusual reprint. Much to the surprise of players, this Secret Lair contains a misprint! Found on Circular Logic, this counterspell has been misprinted as a sorcery! Thankfully, this error doesn’t affect the card’s oracle text, but it’s nonetheless a bizarre oddity.

For better or worse, Wizards has confirmed this misprint has made print and affects every vision of Deceptive Divination. In theory, this could make the new Secret Lair copies of Circular Logic rather expensive, since misprints are typically rather desirable. Since this misprint is so ubiquitous, however, there’s a chance it won’t cost much more than normal.

As a result of this mistake, Wizards of the Coast is offering a discount on Deceptive Divination right now. Rather than costing the usual $29.99 price, currently, a $5 discount is available to all MTG players. While this is a nice touch, it still doesn’t save this Secret Lair’s dire value.

Bundles Bundles Bundles

To finish off, as usual, the Secret Lair Winter 2024 Superdrop also contains a number of bundles that offer a range of discounts. Depending on what you’re after, these could potentially be a great way to snag a bargain, however, each bundle has its faults.

As usual, the biggest talking point from the bundle of bundles is the massive “Everything on the Menu Bundle.” Somewhat given away by the name, this bundle contains two of every card, one foil and one non-foil. Priced at $299.99, this bundle is a hell of a thing, and apparently a good deal!

Totaling everything up, the expected value from this bundle currently sits around $425. Since this is a good deal higher than the asking price, this may seem like a sure thing. Unfortunately, however, a good deal of this value comes from foils, which are always a risky venture.

Ultimately, as with all Secret Lair drops and Superdrops, you should only really buy what you want. If you’re only interested in a card or two, you may be better off picking up singles on the secondary market. At the end of the day, it’s up to you what you do, so don’t give into the FOMO, and make sure you get your money’s worth!

Read More: New Murders at Karlov Manor Card Banned on MTG Arena!

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