Curiously, much like MTG Spider Man, the Avatar: The Last Airbender set hasn’t made huge financial waves so far. We saw some price spikes following the set’s first look, but since then it’s been surprisingly quiet. Even the new competitive and Commander staples that have been spoiled haven’t moved the market.
Despite this seemingly poor reaction to Avatar: The Last Airbender, new cards are still pushing prices up. In particular, it’s the recently released PlayStation cards that have been doing the heavy lifting recently. Curiously, while these cards are rather scarce thanks to being limited run, they’ve still caused a surprising series of spikes.
Fallen Shinobi
Most recently, Fallen Shinobi from 2019’s Modern Horizons has been steadily climbing in price. This is thanks to the card’s strong synergy with Jin Sakai, Ghost of Tsushima, from the Ghost of Tsushima Secret Lair drop. While you can’t do Ninjutsu and Jin Sakai shenanigans in the same attack, there’s still tons of value to exploit here.
If Fallen Shinobi is attacking into an empty board, Jin Sakai can easily give it Double Strike, allowing you to steal four cards. In the likely scenario that your opponent has blockers, however, Jin Sakai can make it effectively Unblockable for the turn. At the very least this gives you two cards per turn that can be cast for free.
Unsurprisingly, casting your opponent’s spells for completely free is one hell of a power swing if you get the right cards. Sadly, guaranteeing you hit a game-ending bomb is far from easy, but with three opponents to pick between, you can stack the deck. Ideally, this allows Fallen Shinobi to keep giving you consistent value while denying your opponent resources.
Thanks to this clear synergy, Fallen Shinobi has found its way into the majority of Jin Sakai decks already. According to EDHREC, this card appears in 59% of lists using this Commander, around 2,170 decks. Unsurprisingly, this demand has been enough to put a pretty sizable dent in the available supply, but it’s not the only viable home for Fallen Shinobi.
While there’s not much mechanical synergy, Fallen Shinobi is also great alongside Nathan Drake, Treasure Hunter. Offering a card-stealing theme, Shinobi is a great inclusion in this deck, although it is weaker here. Between this reduced power and Nathan Drake being surprisingly unpopular, it’s no wonder Jin Sakai is the main driver.
The Spike
For most of its lifespan, copies of Fallen Shinobi have been selling for around $1.50. This isn’t really anything special, although the card does see a fair bit of Commander play. Appearing in over 60,000 Commander decks there’s a good amount of passive demand for this card, especially from Yuriko, the Tiger’s Shadow.
For better or worse, however, it seems that Jin Sakai has tipped the scales somewhat, as supply is low across the board. Despite being reprinted twice, in Commander precons no less, prices have been quickly climbing recently. This price spike is most evident on the variant of the card from the Streets of New Capenna Commander deck, Obscura Operation.
A few months ago, this variant was selling for $1.50 exactly; however, prices have since spiked to $5.55. Notably, near mint copies of this card can be picked up for closer to $5, but there’s only one copy available at that price point. Curiously, some MTG players have paid up to $19.93 for this variant of Fallen Shinobi, likely due to TCGplayer Direct.
It seems MTG players have been using this feature across all variants of Fallen Shinobi, in fact. Near-mint Modern Horizons copies have sold for $11.89 on the top end, while Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander copies have gone for $14.75. Thankfully, the actual prices of these variants are more reasonable, at $5.38 and $4.69, respectively.
Silent-Blade Oni
Thanks to the new synergy offered by Jin Sakai, Ghost of Tsushima, Fallen Shinobi isn’t the only MTG Ninja spiking in price recently. Offering similar Ninjutsu synergy and card-stealing shenanigans, Silent-Blade Oni has also been on the up and up. While it’s only played in around 40% of Jin Sakai decks, roughly 1,600 lists, there’s still been a steep increase in demand.
Due to having four reprints, following its original Planechase 2012 appearance, however, prices are significantly lower. Most variants still have a fair bit of near-mint supply, although prices have been ticking up. For the most part, Silent-Blade Oni has jumped from being worth around $1 to $2 in price, which isn’t obscene.
That said, the Commander 2018 variant of this card has spiked a whopping 327% up to $4.10. Much like Fallen Shinobi, this is largely thanks to TCGplayer Direct, which has been pushing the market price up significantly. If you’re in the market for either of these cards, it’ll definitely be worth being watchful and finding deals where possible.
The Future
As always, we can’t predict the future, but these staple Ninjas do seem to have some potential in the future. That said, this isn’t because of Jin Sakai, Ghost of Tsushima. As a Secret Lair card, the potential demand for synergies will always be capped. After all, there are only so many copies in existence. Due to this, any overeager investments may end up not paying off.
Thankfully, while Jin Sakai might not be the strongest spec, card stealing is a surprisingly popular MTG mechanic. Not only have we had a couple of precons built around this idea, but new cards and Commanders are printed that care about the mechanic fairly regularly. As if that wasn’t enough, we’ve also got the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles set coming out in 2026.
At the very least, this set will likely have tons of new support for Ninja Typal Commander decks. This is bound to increase interest in archetype staples like Fallen Shinobi and Silent-Blade Oni. At the same time, however, these cards could theoretically be reprinted in the set’s precon, or bonus sheet. Should this happen, their value would likely crash back down. Due to this, while the potential is there, long-term value is somewhat suspect.
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