As many of you know, a major ban announcement is set to occur very soon. Many players are looking forward to the August 26 announcement, hoping for major changes to bring about improvements to their favorite formats.
In some ways, it feels as though a couple of cards in Modern and Legacy will inevitably get the axe. Nadu, Winged Wisdom and Grief, respectively, have grown rather oppressive. Seeing either of these cards stick around would frankly be quite shocking.
However, one format where there are a ton of potential avenues for Wizards of the Coast to take is Pioneer. The format has grown stale, but we believe that a simple nerf to Rakdos Vampires won’t fully solve this problem.
In fact, there’s a strong argument to be made in favor of a mass ban. Hitting a multitude of archetypes could create the shake-up Pioneer desperately needs, and failing to do so may have negative consequences. To better understand the potential benefits of a mass ban, we need to first analyze the Pioneer metagame and discuss how specific, minor changes would likely impact the format at large.
The Beginning
- Mana Value: 3BBB
- Rarity: Mythic Rare
- Stats: 6/5
- MTG Set: Murders at Karlov Manor
- Card Text: Flying. Ward- Sacrifice a creature. Whenever a creature dies, target opponent loses 2 life and you gain 2 life.
If anything gets banned in Pioneer on Monday, the primary culprit will almost certainly be from Rakdos Vampires. Rakdos Vampires has proven to be more than just a staple archetype in the format. Its metagame percentage and win rate in recent months have been rather absurd. In the last two Magic Online Pioneer Challenges, Rakdos Vampires took up four of the top eight spots in one event and five of the top eight positions in the other.
Part of the reason the deck is so successful is that it is incredibly difficult to hate out. The nut draw of turn three Vein Ripper off Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord is always looming, and will often win the game by itself. Hate cards such as Blot Out can take down Vein Ripper if you’re lucky, but a single well-timed Thoughtseize can put an end to that plan. Plus, the existence of potent grindy cards like Fable of the Mirror-Breaker gives the deck a nice backup plan that is extremely powerful in its own right.
Abzan Amalia, while not quite as heavily represented as Rakdos Vampires, presents similar issues to the format. The combo is elite, consistent, and it’s not as easy to break up as you might think. Many anti-life gain cards, including Rampaging Ferocidon, get cleanly answered by Skyclave Apparition. Meanwhile, Collected Company and Return to the Ranks gives the deck a ton of staying power in the face of removal.
The resiliency of these two strategies makes it more difficult for players to innovate within the format. The sheer dominance of these decks should be enough to warrant bans in some capacity (especially in the case of Rakdos Vampires). That said, the metagame breakdown isn’t the only thing that plays a role in ban decisions.
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Going Further
- Mana Value: WB
- Rarity: Rare
- Stats: 2/2
- MTG Set: The Lost Caverns of Ixalan.
- Card Text: Ward- Pay 3 life. Whenever you gain life, Amalia Benavides Aguirre explores. Then destroy all other creatures if its power is exactly 20. (To have this creature explore, reveal the top card of your library. Put that card into your hand if it’s a land. Otherwise, put a +1/+1 counter on this creature, then put the card back or put it into your graveyard.
When it comes to Abzan Amalia, beyond just the deck’s overall win rate and representation, it’s essential to look at the deck’s negative play patterns and format-warping nature when talking about bans. One of the most frustrating aspects of Abzan Amalia for many players is the frequency with which draws occur.
Amalia Benavides Aguirre is worded in a weird way, where you only get to destroy all other creatures if Amalia’s power is EXACTLY 20. This creates weird scenarios where an opponent can wait until Amalia’s power gets near 20 mid-combo, then cast a pump spell to bring Amalia’s power above 20 right away. From there, the Explore loop with Wildgrowth Walker will continue forever, resulting in a draw.
A similar outcome occurs if Wildgrowth Walker is given Indestructible, say by Selfless Savior. This means that Abzan Amalia players can sometimes choose to end the game in a draw at will when applicable. This isn’t necessarily a huge problem, but it can lead to unfun tournament experiences and rounds consistently going long. This, combined with Amalia’s ability to warp the Pioneer metagame, makes it a prime candidate for a ban.
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The Case for Extra Bans
- Rarity: Rare
- MTG Set: Theros
- Card Text: Tap: Add 1 to your mana pool. 2, Tap: Choose a color. Add to your mana pool an amount of mana of that color equal to your devotion to that color. (You devotion to a color is the number of mana symbols of that color in the mana costs of permanents you control.)
Unfortunately, though, the suppression of other archetypes by Abzan Amalia is both a curse and a blessing. Decks that lack interaction for the combo, like mono-green Devotion, have very few tools at their disposal to fight against Amalia. This has led to a huge decrease in top tournament results for mono-green Devotion.
The concern, however, is that by banning Amalia, mono-green Devotion reasserts its dominance. Mono-green Devotion is a deck with a troublesome history in Pioneer. Wizards of the Coast ultimately decided to ban Karn, the Great Creator a while back to weaken the deck’s combo potential. Yet, this means that Nykthos, the real engine of the deck, made it through unscathed.
With access to Leyline of the Guildpact, the nut draws associated with mono-green Devotion are rather unenjoyable. There’s a good chance a ban to Abzan Amalia and Rakdos Vampires just raises concerns and complaints about mono-green once again.
Izzet Phoenix is in a similar boat. Treasure Cruise has been on the hot seat for quite some time. If it starts to flourish post-ban, the deck will surely draw attention to it. Even Lotus Field combo, a deck that many players find frustrating due to how difficult it is to interact favorably with a Hexproof land, could easily rise back to stardom with Abzan Amalia out of the way. In this sense, there’s a good chance a small Pioneer ban won’t accomplish a big shake-up by itself.
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A World of Opportunity
- Mana Value: 7U
- Rarity: Common
- MTG Sets: Khans of Tarkir, Commander 2016, Commander Anthology Volume II, Ultimate Masters, Time Spiral Remastered, Commander 2021, New Capenna Commander, Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander, Modern Horizons 3 Commander
- Card Text: Delve (Each card you exile from your graveyard while casting this spell pays for 1.) Draw three cards.
The idea that Pioneer needs major change isn’t exactly an unpopular opinion. Many players have had a similar train of thought, hoping for bans to Rakdos Vampires, Abzan Amalia, mono-green Devotion, and Izzet Phoenix alike. Banning Treasure Cruise and Nykthos would essentially nuke Izzet Phoenix and mono-green Devotion, but maybe that’s what the format needs.
Some want the ban announcement to go even further, hitting Lotus Field and Quintorius Kand. This may seem like overkill, yet it isn’t too far-fetched. When Dimir Inverter and Breach combo were at their peaks, Wizards of the Coast decided to make major changes to the format. These changes went beyond just banning Inverter of Truth and Underworld Breach. Walking Ballista and Kethis, the Hidden Hand joined the party, with the hopes of establishing Pioneer as a format not overwhelmed by combo decks.
Since then, combo decks have run rampant in Pioneer. In some ways, it would be nice for a format cleansing to help Pioneer get back to the basics. Only time will tell how Wizards of the Coast decides to approach Pioneer. So, make sure to keep an eye out for the big announcement on Monday.
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