At long last, the next MTG ban announcement is almost here. On Monday, August 26th, Wizards will finally reveal the next wave of bans for MTG. Following the June announcement which changed literally nothing, it’s safe to say new bans are long overdue. Between Modern, Legacy, Pioneer, and Standard, almost every format needs serious changes.
Technically, until Monday, there’s no telling what Wizards has up their sleeves. That being said, some of the needed bans are so obvious that there will be outrage from MTG players if they don’t happen. This has led to no end of speculation over recent months, especially in a recent all-caps Reddit thread.
Modern Ban Predictions
It’s no secret that a card or two in the Nadu Combo deck will be banned very soon. This has been called for since the deck won Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3. The only question is what card will be banned? Getting rid of Nadu, Winged Wisdom is the obvious nuclear option, however, Wizards may not be that blunt.
Looking back at the infamous Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis, Wizards took their time to ban this problematic deck properly. At first, Wizards banned the deck’s support pieces, rather than the root of the problem. This allowed the deck to evolve and persist until Wizards finally bit the bullet and banned Hogaak.
With this in mind, it’s entirely possible that Wizards might ban Shuko rather than Nadu. This card has been the go-to Nadu engine, and while it’s powerful there are other options. Lightning Greaves, for example, is an easy, albeit slightly more expensive, option this deck could utilize. With this in mind, Wizards really shouldn’t try to avoid the inevitable.
While everyone knows Nadu, Winged Wisdom should be banned, Modern Horizons 3 does make that difficult. This set is only two months old at this point, so Wizards may hesitate to ban anything from it. Not doing this, however, would be a mistake, especially since Nadu isn’t the only problem.
Currently, Boros, Jeskai, and Mardu Energy decks are the strongest second option in Modern. Should Nadu be banned, these decks will likely overrun the Modern metagame, causing new problems. As a result, it may be wise for Wizards to preemptively ban Galvanic Discharge or Ocelot Pride.
On top of these bans, many MTG players have also been calling for The One Ring to get banned too. This card is incredibly homogenous, showing up in almost all of the best decks. It’s currently the most popular card in Modern by quite some margin, appearing in 47% of decks.
As if the ubiquity of this card wasn’t bad enough, it’s also obscenely expensive. Currently, this card sells for at least $68, largely being players are expending a ban. Should this not happen, its price may skyrocket well beyond $100, causing huge financial concerns for Modern players.
Ultimately, it seems that Modern is in a very difficult spot right now. Even if Wizards bans one problem MTG card, another may pop up thanks to the power of Modern Horizons 3.
Legacy Ban Predictions
In Legacy, Grief has long been causing Grief in Rescaminator decks. This was known long before the ban announcement back in June, so the lack of action there was incredibly disappointing. Wizards now have an opportunity to fix that mistake, and they really need to for the sake of the format.
Unlike most problematically powerful decks, Rescaminator isn’t just good, it’s also incredibly versatile. Able to pivot its game plan using the sideboard, this deck can either go for a combo finish or a midrange strategy without missing a beat. This is largely thanks to Grief which is an exceptional card in every variant.
Prior to June, this deck was already incredibly strong and definitely a bannable problem. Following Modern Horizons 3, however, this archetype has gotten even more powerful. Thanks to the addition of Psychic Frog Rescaminator has continued its reign of terror and almost absolute dominance.
According to MTGdecks, Dimir Rescaminator decks comprise around 15% of the Legacy metagame. While this isn’t too overwhelming, it is in terms of power. Looking at recent tournament results, Dimir Rescaminator just wins, and it’s making the format feel especially stale and boring.
Thanks to this deck being dominant for so long, MTG players have already decided that Grief needs to go. Many players believe that Psychic Frog will take over the format after this change, so two MTG cards receiving bans may be more appropriate than one. Hopefully, this should make Wizards of the Coast’s job easy come Monday.
Pioneer Ban Predictions
Speaking of formats being stale and boring, Pioneer is currently a Vein Ripper emporium. Over the past 30 days, Rakdos Vampires deck commands a brutal 29% of the Pioneer metagame. Thanks to this outright dominance it’s safe to say something needs to be done.
The only question is which card will be banned as there are two options on the table. Wizards could either get rid of the main threat itself, Vein Ripper, or the enabler Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord. Thankfully, unlike Modern, this doesn’t have to be a difficult decision, as either one kills the deck’s combo.
Should Wizards ban Sorin, Rakdos Vampires would lose its engine to cheat out powerful Vampires for minimal cost. Without this cost-mitigating effect, Vein Ripper is far too expensive to be playable. This is probably the safest option for a Pioneer ban, as there technically are other vampires to cheat in.
Between Olivia, Crimson Bride and Ghalta and Mavren, there are definitely other powerful Pioneer playable Vampires. These cards, however, all lack something that makes Vein Ripper so powerful; Ward. Since Vein Ripper forces your opponent to sacrifice a creature it can be especially difficult to deal with.
At worst, Vein Ripper trades and drains an opponent for four. At best, they’re a game-ending threat that easily overwhelms opponents. Thanks to this, banning Vein Ripper may be the most sensible option. While Rakdos Vampires could attempt to pivot, removal is a viable option against alternative threats.
Pioneer is the one format where Wizards of the Coast could go a lot further. While Vein Ripper is the obvious issue, Amalia Life has also shown signs of being problematic.
Standard Ban Predictions
Standard is in a bit of a weird spot right now. Following the format’s rotation, two front-running decks claim much of the metagame. These decks are Golgari Midrange and Domain Ramp. The former of these is doing especially well with the Innkeeper’s Talent and Vraska, Betrayal’s Sting combo.
Respectively claiming 15% and 11% of the Standard metagame over the past two weeks, these decks are definitely dominant. Whether or not they need to be banned, however, is a difficult question. Sure they’re popular and somewhat difficult to play against, but Standard is a very fluid format.
In later September, Duskmourn: House of Horror will release a bevy of new cards into Standard to shake things up. Following this, MTG Foundations will provide an even bigger metagame shift on November 15th. Either one of these sets could upend the metagame and make either of these currently dominant decks not a problem.
While an incoming metagame shift is definitely a possibility, right now is the problem. Leaving Standard to rot for another month or three is hardly ideal when it’s meant to be in a renaissance. That said, banning cards when Standard is meant to be approachable isn’t a great look either.
On Reddit, some MTG players suspect that Atraxa, Grand Unifier is going to get banned on Monday. As the powerhouse card in Domina Ramp, this massive bomb is a true multiformat threat and perhaps too good for Standard. While this may be the case, Golgari Midrange is even more popular and powerful at the moment.
Should Wizards try to curb this deck’s power, banning Vraska, Betrayal’s Sting is probably the best option. Admittedly Innkeeper’s Talent is much more versatile, but it’s also newer and now exclusively a win condition. Ultimately, Wizards has some difficult decisions to make with Standard.
Only Time Will Tell
While a few cards are obvious and sorely needed, there’s no telling what will happen. The vast majority of these problems were already clear back in June, and Wizards didn’t do anything then. Due to this, there’s a worryingly non-zero chance that this upcoming ban announcement may be a bust.
Ultimately, we’re just going to have to wait and see what MTG cards Wizards bans on Monday. Hopefully, this announcement will provide the changes players have long been waiting for, but we’ll have to see about that. Thankfully we won’t have to wait long, at least, as the announcement is only in a few days.
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