It was only a matter of time before Modern became a solved format. The ban announcement that occurred in mid-December was everything that Wizards of the Coast needed to do to breathe life into a staling format. Unbanning three controversial cards was certainly a brave move, and after a few months of figuring the format out, it appears that one unban may have broken the format.
We were worried that the Grinding Breach combo in the Modern format would be a problem a long time ago. Being able to kill an opponent on turn two, while also being able to grind deep into the game, creates a recipe that is very difficult to overcome. The first U.S. Regional Championship has just finished, and it is clear that something needs to be done about Grinding Breach combo.
Grinding Breach’s Absurd Winrate
Grinding Breach is the clear S-tier deck in the Modern format. Looking at the data from this weekend’s U.S. Regional Championship tells a scary story. While the deck was the most represented in the top eight of R.C. Portland, the day two rate for the event is what has players concerned.
34% of players who registered Grinding Breach at the U.S. Regional Championship over the weekend day two’d the prestigious event. This may not seem too impressive when you compare this metric to Jeskai Energy, a new control deck that has been popping up in recent weeks. That deck also had a very strong day two conversion at 31%.
Things become more clear when you look at the day two metagame representation. Grinding Breach takes up a massive 30% of the metagame, while Jeskai energy is only being played by 6% of the room. The decks may have had similar day two rates, but way more players brought Grinding Breach to the Regional Championship, making its day two rate a lot more impressive, and worrying. To be specific, 18 Jeskai Energy decks made day two, while 68 Grinding Breach decks managed to do the same.
Grinding Breach had almost double the representation of any other deck in the room on day two. Eldrazi Ramp was the second most represented deck, seeing about 17% play in the room. This deck took up two top eight spots in comparison to the three that Grinding Breach represented.
But Grinding Breach Didn’t Win
Despite the strength of Grinding Breach, the winner of R.C. Portland was Amulet Titan. This deck feels as old as Modern itself, utilizing Amulet of Vigor in combination with Bounce Lands to ramp out a Primeval Titan and end the game in short order. Titan player Peter Husisian ultimately beat out Jackson Knorr on Grinding Breach in the grand finals, forcing the problematic archetype to settle for a second-place finish.
What many players may not know is that Amulet Titan is Grinding Breach’s worst matchup. The deck is able to use a lot of control elements to keep Breach from winning the game while it sets up a Titan kill. Recurring Boseiju, Who Endures goes a long way against Grinding Breach. Being able to access cards like Collector Ouphe and Keen-Eyed Cultivator to keep the deck shut off with Green Sun’s Zenith can occasionally just blow the game out. The deck can also win quickly enough to just race Grinding Breach to the finish line.
Even with Amulet Titan’s strong matchup against Breach, all the deck needs is a strong draw to win any matchup. Semi-consistent turn-two wins through interaction means that Grinding Breach can win any game.
What Needs to Change?
It’s pretty clear now that something in Grinding Breach needs to go. While many players are already pointing their fingers toward the recently unbanned Mox Opal, the card that caused Grinding Breach’s rise to infamy, we believe that Underworld Breach is the better card to ban. Underworld Breach is already banned in Legacy and Pioneer – suggesting that it is the problem card instead of Mox Opal. Breach is ultimately the one-card engine that is allowing these turn two kills to exist in the format.
Mox Opal helps enable decks other than Grinding Breach. Affinity, Hammertime, and some other fringe archetypes are beginning to find tier two footholds in the Modern format, and banning Mox Opal likely ruins any chance that these decks have at being remotely competitive. I believe that minimizing splash damage is the most responsible way to ban cards. As a result, I would advocate against Mox Opal being banned. Underworld Breach itself does enable some other archetypes, but it cannot compare to Mox Opal in this regard.
In a perfect world, this means that Grinding Station would be the perfect card to go. This would break up the infinite that lets Breach function in its current form and would allow Underworld Breach and Mox Opal to enable other decks. That said, the concern with banning Grinding Station is that it may not be good enough. All players need to do is find another consistent Underworld Breach enabler, and we’re back to square one.
More Time to Wait
Unfortunately, it appears that the next ban announcement for Modern will not be live until March, which means that Modern fans may need to fight against the Breach menace for another month. Players are also calling for Boros Energy and Amulet Titan bans following the recent results, but it seems clear that Breach’s prowess is a step above the rest. In our opinion, it is no longer an ‘if’ that something out of Grinding Breach gets banned. It is a ‘what,’ and a ‘when’.