16, Jan, 25

MTG's New Combo Overlord May Need to be Banned

Modern has been in a bit of a rough spot recently. Over the summer, Nadu, Winged Wisdom reigned as the all-encompassing combo menace. Once this bird was finally banned from the format things weren’t much better as Energy took over completely. Multiple combos rose up to try and tackle this archetype, but the only solution was ultimately even more bans. Unfortunately, Wizards’ choice to unban four iconic MTG cards in Modern may have created new problems.

You would think that the third time’s the charm, but it appears that Wizards of the Coast has created yet another combo metagame. While I personally love combo decks, they’re not for everyone. It is very difficult to play fair Magic when one particular deck is threatening to kill you as early as turn one.

Underworld Breach is Banned for a Reason

Despite Underworld Breach being banned in Pioneer and Legacy, it’s still around in Modern for some reason. There’s almost always been a combo deck utilizing this card in the format, but for a long time, Underworld Breach was just ok. Graveyard hate and the speed of Modern were efficient enough to deal with whatever shenanigans players were trying. The card could generally create turn three wins at the earliest. This was enough time to get a plan in place to combat it.

Now, with the unbanning of Mox Opal, the Grinding Breach strategy can win as early as turn one. Granted, turn one wins are almost impossible as you need to have a perfect seven combined with some luck, but turn two wins are very achievable.

Turn two is still incredibly fast, but if Grinding Breach were purely a glass cannon combo deck, this wouldn’t be so bad. Ruby Storm, for example, wins at a similar pace, but the deck cannot play well through hate. In comparison, Grinding Breach has multiple plans that can change as the game progresses.

If Underworld Breach can’t win, Grinding Breach can use Urza’s Saga to beat down the opponent with Construct tokens. If the game goes long, Grinding Station can mill the opponent out. Tamiyo, Seasoned Scholar also threatens to draw half of the deck and end the game in one fell swoop. Otherwise, Emry, Lurker of the Loch can keep recurring artifacts to grind out the mid-game. Combine that all together, and you get a very resilient strategy that is tough to beat. Not only do you need to open with hate to stop Grinding Breach, but you need to have a plan for the rest of the game, as well.

Insanely Consistent Results

While even the best decks come and go from various tournament top eights, Grinding Breach seems to be a permanent resident. The most recent Modern Challenge had two Grinding Breach players in the top eight, and eleven decks in the top 32. The previous day’s challenge had three Breach players in the top eight. In fact, the last 13 Modern challenges have had Underworld Breach decks in the top eight. That’s almost two straight weeks of winning results.

As the deck continues to succeed, the metagame is beginning to warp. Now, decks that have direct counters to the Breach strategy, like Karn, the Great Creator, are beginning to perform strongly. This does suggest that Grinding Breach may not break the format as Nadu did. Should the deck continue to perform in a heavily warped metagame, however, then we’re back to the same square that the recent Modern shakeups tried to get us away from. Instead of Nadu dominating the format, or Energy warping the format, we have Grinding Breach warping the format.

Ultimately, we’ll have to wait and see how the upcoming Modern Regional Championships play out. As players try to qualify for Pro Tour Final Fantasy in June, Grinding Breach will likely be the choice of many for the event. It appears as though the deck will be a problem at this stage, but the finest players in the world are likely testing behind closed doors. It will be interesting to see what solutions hit the table.

What Needs to Change?

The current ban list is going to exist until March, so we have some time before changes occur. The Regional Championship season has not started yet but, honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Grinding Breach put up consistent results throughout the entire season, even with a target on its back. If Grinding Breach proves to be problematic, a ban will be called for.

Many players may think that the problem card is Mox Opal. Opal is the card that sped Grinding Breach up to problematic degrees, but it’s not necessarily the card that should be banned. The card that will likely be banned to keep this deck in check is Underworld Breach itself. The card is already banned in less powerful formats. It has likely overstayed its welcome in Modern.

While Underworld Breach is one of my personal favorite cards, this ban would make a lot of sense. As long as Mox Opal and Mox Amber are in the Modern format, Underworld Breach threatens to create kills that are far too fast for players to contend with.

Mox Opal, in comparison, gives a lot of other archetypes a needed boost. Affinity, Hammertime, Hardened Scales, and Basking Broodscale combo all get a huge buff from Mox Opal. Even with this buff, none of those decks can compete with the current metagame. It would be a shame to punish these decks for Underworld Breach’s sins.

Following this logic, it would perhaps make the most sense to ban Grinding Station. This would make the current Underworld Breach combo unusable, but it still allows for the card to give birth to other decks. That said, there’s still the risk that Underworld Breach creates another degenerate strategy powered by Mox Opal. That risk is something that Wizards of the Coast will have to explore for themselves.

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