In an unexpected decision from Wizards of the Coast earlier in the week, the long-anticipated ban announcement is now scheduled for November 10 rather than November 24. Furthermore, Wizards made it clear that action will likely be taken to address the Standard format, and that Vivi Ornitier is the culprit.
Even with the rise in mono-red to help combat the format menace, a ban to Izzet Cauldron in some capacity felt inevitable. However, we believe that banning only Vivi Ornitier could prove to be a poor choice in the long run. This is because one particular strategy that has been swept under the rug due to Izzet Cauldron’s format-warping nature looks poised for a comeback. Complaints surrounding this deck are nothing new, and if not addressed, we may end up back where we started.
Dimir Lives On
We are, of course, talking about Dimir midrange. As things currently stand, Dimir is obviously not problematic. Its metagame percentage is below that of Izzet Cauldron and mono-red aggro, which stand firmly at the top of the totem pole. As such, it’s improbable that anything from the deck gets banned. This, unfortunately, may have dire consequences for the format moving forward.
This in part stems from the decisions in the previous ban announcement. On June 30, Wizards decided to take initiative and ban 7 cards in Standard prior to rotation.
Cori-Steel Cutter and Monstrous Rage were super dominant and well deserving of bans. Some of the other cards like Up the Beanstalk, though, weren’t overwhelming at the time. They were seemingly banned as a precaution. This makes sense, since there was reason to believe with Izzet Prowess and red aggro weakened, Up the Beanstalk decks might run rampant.
Izzet, mono-red, Esper Pixie, Azorius Omniscience combo, and multi-color Beanstalk decks all took big hits from the bans. This left Dimir midrange unscathed, and players immediately flocked to it. It didn’t take long before players were questioning why Dimir didn’t receive a ban in the first place.
Over time, people began to realize how broken Izzet Cauldron was, which in turn took attention away from Dimir. Add on the prevalence of mono-red as a way to attack Izzet Cauldron (mono-red is a poor matchup for Dimir), and Dimir became a distant third choice.
With Vivi out of the picture in two months, players will almost certainly look straight to Dimir once more. The deck is simple, well-established, and has a robust gameplan, making it the perfect archetype to turn towards. Not only is this a rather boring outcome for anyone looking for a major Standard shakeup, but we run the risk of the deck being format-warping.
Two Key Problems
The deck’s format-warping nature stems from two specific cards: Kaito, Bane of Nightmares and Enduring Curiosity. Beyond being naturally strong payoffs, they promote unpleasant play patterns. If any cards were to get banned from Dimir, we would nominate these.
Kaito sneaks past Counterspells and generates tons of value, all while threatening the opponent’s life total. Meanwhile, Enduring Curiosity can take over games singlehandedly unless your opponent can answer all of your threats on curve.
Having access to two massive card advantage engines that dodge a lot of removal forces other players to adjust in an unhealthy way. Decks that can’t apply enough pressure to Kaito need to find specific answers like Get Lost to stay in the game. Enduring Curiosity also demands specific answers like Exorcise.
What this does is it condenses the metagame as a whole. Azorius control decks that might normally prey on black midrange get a lot worse in the face of these two standout cards, and thus could easily fall off the map. The same can be said for other midrange shells like Golgari and decks built around Unholy Annex.
Furthermore, as players try to adjust by playing decks like mono-red that line up well versus Kaito thanks to their wealth of cheap creatures with Haste, other slower archetypes like ramp or Naya Yuna pay the price. Decks that can’t compete with Kaito may simply never get off the ground.
Kaito hitting the board when you don’t have an answer is also a miserable experience. Even being on the draw in the Dimir midrange mirror can feel like a death sentence if your opponent lands Kaito on turn three before you jam yours. With all these factors in mind, we feel it’s in Wizards’ best interest to ban one of these two cards.
A Glimmer of Hope
As much as we would love to see Kaito or Enduring Curiosity bite the dust, it’s best to start preparing for Dimir Winter. There’s still a chance that the format evolves in a way that showcases format diversity over time.
We mentioned mono-red aggro as a staple archetype that lines up well against Dimir. Well, Esper Pixie is no slouch there, either. With plenty of ways to gain card advantage and Nowhere to Run as a bounceable removal spell that gets around Hexproof, Esper Pixie has game against Dimir and mono-red alike.
As such, some players firmly believe that as strong as Dimir looks on paper, given some time, the format will adapt just fine. Others think with no other bans, Dimir midrange will rule the metagame and we’ll be back to having more ban discussions in no time.
Even if the former proves to be true, though, it’s best to eliminate the associated risks and rip the Band-Aid off early. Besides, with Standard’s new 3-year rotation, having Wizards be more proactive in their bans has its benefits. A healthy but stale metagame isn’t an ideal outcome. Banning Kaito reduces unfun gameplay while simultaneously opening up the metagame. This sounds like a win-win scenario to us.
While we prepare for a Vivi-less Standard after November 10, we can only hope the format ends up in a good place.
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