It hasn’t been long since the world of MTG was rocked by the latest wave of bans and unbans. During this much-anticipated announcement, a Modern menace was struck down, and Pauper was given a significant metagame shift. While MTG players have been largely positive about these changes, the Commander format was notably left untouched.
At the time, Wizards of the Coast only stated that Commander changes would be coming soon, on April 22nd. Now, that time is finally almost upon us, so it’s high time we start speculating about what we may see on Tuesday. Notably, we already know that there won’t be any bans during this announcement; however, unbans are very much on the table.
Inefficient Gamebreakers
The Commander banlist is a very intriguing collection of cards. Some cards, like Black Lotus and the original Moxen, are banned due to their power level and lack of availability. Others, such as Channel or Flash, are uber-efficient designs that are banned for their ability to end games on the spot. Unsurprisingly, we don’t expect any of these specific cards to be banned this coming Tuesday.
While MTG cards that can end games in an instant are often banned for good reason, not all of Commander’s banned cards are competitive anymore. Coalition Victory, for example, is hardly the only, or even most powerful, game-ending eight mana spell in MTG.
On top of casting this spell itself, you’ll also need to set things up beforehand, which will take some work. While getting a few dual lands and a five-color creature onto the board isn’t too difficult, it’s hardly a free win. Considering the amount of game-ending combos in Commander that take less mana and setup, Coalition Victory could be a surprisingly safe unban.
Similarly, Biorhythm has a lot of game-ending potential, but you’d expect that much for its mana cost. If you’re unprepared, Biorhythm can be incredibly deadly, however, even a few blockers can secure your safety. While there is the concern for a one-two punch between In Garruk’s Wake and Biorhythm, a 17-mana combo ending games is hardly outlandish.
Compared to modern combos and value engines in Commander, neither Coalition Victory nor Biorhythm seems that insane anymore. Potentially, both of these cards could be entirely unbanned in Commander without much issue. What’s more likely to happen, however, is that these cards will become Game Changers. This way, more casual games of Commander can be spared from these instant wins, while still allowing them to be played in more competitive-oriented decks.
Unfun Designs and Value Engines
While many of the cards on the Commander banlist are there due to their strength, some are just unfun to play against. Sylvan Primordial very much falls into this category, as it’s hardly a game-ending menace on its own. When coupled with blink effects, however, Sylvan Primordial can completely stall out games by blowing up your opponent’s lands.
As you might expect, abusing Sylvan Primordial in this way isn’t fun for anyone but you. While this card can definitely be powerful, it’s hardly unbeatable if you’ve got counterspells or removal. At the very least, if unbanned, Sylvan Primordial would hardly be the only card capable of ending games alongside an existing blink engine.
Much like Sylvan Primordial, Sway of the Stars was also banned due to being seriously unfun to play against. By essentially resetting the game, albeit with lower life totals, it’s safe to say Sway of the Stars can have a colossal impact. Within the grand scheme of MTG, however, this is nothing new for a ten mana card. Worldfire comes at a similar cost, for instance, and is arguably even more powerful.
Outside of these arguably unfun designs, a prolific value engine could also realistically be removed from the Commander banlist. Capable of tutoring lands with incredible ease, Primeval Titan can set up value engines and win conditions with startling efficiency. While Primeval Titan is undeniably strong, they do look right at home on the Game Changers list.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, this is where we expect each of the cards discussed thus far to land. While some of them could theoretically be unbanned entirely, Wizards is unlikely to take that risk. Since the Game Changers list exists as a safe middle ground to test new ideas and unbans, it makes sense to sue it, after all.
Reversing Recent Bans
Finally, that brings us to the four cards that were banned back in September of last year. Dockside Extortionist, Mana Crypt, Jeweled Lotus, and Nadu, Winged Wisdom all bit the dust during that shocking announcement. Unsurprisingly, three of these cards immediately plummeted in value, leaving a sour taste in many players’ mouths.
From the moment that Wizards took over the Commander format, there has been a lot of speculation that these bans would be reversed. If you ask us, however, this would be a mistake, since it gives the bad actors who forced the dissolution of the Commander Rules Committee exactly what they want. On top of this, it’d also shake consumer confidence in the strength of any Commander bans going forward.
From a power level perspective, however, some of these cards, such as Jeweled Lotus, could be realistically unbanned. This card is quite powerful from a casual perspective, but for cEDH, it adds to the format instead of taking away from it. This gives mono-colored Commander decks a major boost at the highest levels of play, letting them compete with the ever-dominant four-color piles. For this reason, it could be unbanned and become a Game Changer, but that’s far from guaranteed.
What is basically guaranteed, however, is the fact that Nadu, Winged Wisdom will not be unbanned on Tuesday. This shouldn’t be a surprise considering it was deemed a design mistake and makes individual turns last an absurd amount of time. This is not only a powerful Commander, but it is also an incredibly unfun one.
At the end of the day, our final prediction is that the unban announcement is fairly tame. We expect Coalition Victory, Biorhythm, Sylvan Primordial, Sway of the Stars, and Primeval Titan will all be unbanned, becoming Game Changers on April 22nd. This means we don’t expect any of the recent Commander bans to be reversed, but there is a chance this happens.