Magic: The Gathering’s next ban announcement is scheduled to take place this coming Monday, March 31st. As has been the case with scheduled ban announcements nowadays, this one is coming far too late. Thanks to some experimental unbans in Modern, one deck broke the format and has been running rampant for months.
While Modern’s bans aren’t up for much discussion, every other format is. Standard, Pioneer, Legacy, Vintage, and (probably) Pauper are all up for discussion, after all. For better or worse, there’s a lot to say about each of these formats right now and plenty to speculate about. So, here are our ban predictions for each MTG format ahead of the official March 31st announcement.
Standard: Monstrous Rage
Personally, I do not think that Standard needs any bans right now. Yes, there are three decks that rule the roost, but there’s still room for experimentation and, more importantly, balance. Gruul Aggro, Domain Overlords, and Esper Pixie might each be strong, but none of them is truly dominating the format.
Despite our opinions, we’ve potentially already seen what Wizards of the Coast has planned. A few days ago, an MTG Arena glitch stated that Monstrous Rage was banned when players attempted to purchase a cosmetic for the card. While this message could have just been displayed in error, it certainly seems like this card will be banned.
While we might not think it’s needed, there’s good reason for this card to be banned. As one of the key pieces of Gruul Aggro and Mono-Red Aggro, this card provides a huge amount of value. Getting +3/+1 for just one mana is already insane, but this card also provides Trample. As if that wasn’t good enough, part of this buff will stick around, thanks to the Monster Role token.
Given what we’ve seen, we predict that Monstrous Rage will indeed be banned in Standard on Monday. Whether or not this is the correct decision ultimately remains to be seen. Rotation, which happens with Edge of Eternties, isn’t too far away, which should mix up the Standard metagame. While Monstrous Rage won’t be rotating this year, it could still be pushed out.
As much as many MTG players want Monstrous Rage gone, there’s a chance it could cause problems. Since it’s one of the best aggressive tools in the format and in Magic as a whole, removing it could leave this archetype lacking. Worryingly, this could return Standard to an era of midrange soup, in which Up the Beanstalk rules the roost.
Modern: Underworld Breach (And Unbans?)
There’s no doubt about it, something is getting banned in Modern. Grinding Breach has taken the format by storm, clearly setting itself ahead of everything else in Modern. If something from the deck doesn’t get banned in the coming few days, it’s safe to say that players may leave Modern in droves.
The only question is, what will be banned from this deck? Some players expect Mox Opal to bite the dust, while others expect Underworld Breach. On the surface, Mox Opal definitely looks like the problem since its recent banning is what caused this problem in the first place. While there’s no denying it sped up the Grinding Breach combo, banning it just for that might be a mistake.
Underworld Breach is the real card that makes this entire combo deck work. So long as Breach is legal in Modern, it’ll remain a risk that could be broken by a new synergistic spell. Mox Opal, however, doesn’t have the same problem. Outside of Grinding Breach, this card is almost rather tame, as it’s not pushing every archetype to tier one status.
Outside of the debate about which card to ban, there’s also been discussion about what, if anything, may be unbanned. Currently, there are some safer bans to look at, such as Punishing Fire, but nothing is guaranteed. Personally, I think that Ponder, Umezawa’s Jitte, and Hypergenesis could all also see unbans too, but there’s no telling if Wizards will jump the shark again.
Personally, I think that Underworld Breach will be banned in Modern, and nothing else will happen. Following the chaos that ensued after the last unbans, it makes sense that Wizards would want to play it safe. Whether or not this will actually happen, however, remains to be seen.
Pioneer: No Changes
At the moment, Pioneer seems to be in a fairly solid position. Rakdos Demons is plaguing the format a little bit, but it’s definitely not unbeatable. Now that Jegantha, the Wellspring has been banned, there’s certainly been more variety, which is always welcome. Since Pioneer is in a fairly healthy spot right now, we don’t think it needs any bans. That being said, there could potentially be some unbans to shake and spice things up.
Admittedly, while unbans would cause a lot of buzz, everything on the Pioneer banlist is there for a reason. Many of the cards that could be unbanned somewhat safely would still create decks that create miserable play experiences. As much as I love my combo decks, they don’t exactly foster an interesting and interactive experience.
Due to this, my personal prediction is that there will be no changes at all in Pioneer. I would love to see Kethis, the Hidden Hand be unbanned, but I don’t actually expect that to happen.
Legacy: No Changes
This one may brew some controversy, but it’s my honest opinion. I don’t think Legacy needs any bans. Yes, Dimir Reanimator is still a very good deck that gets to play two different gameplans, and I hate Psychic Frog just as much as any other player, but looking at top Legacy finishes tells a very different story from public opinion. Ancient Tomb decks are performing extremely well right now.
The recent Legacy qualifier on Magic Online, for example, saw Painter’s Servant decks completely dominate the competition. These used blue thanks to the new Legacy all-star Stock Up. Omnitell decks are back in business for the same reason.
Looking at the recent Legacy Showcase Challenge results also points to a very diverse metagame. There were a few Dimir Midrange decks, but they all seemed to take different paths. This is a huge departure from the massive amounts of Dimir Reanimtor that used to dominate top results. For this reason, I don’t think that Legacy really needs any bans at the moment.
Of course, while nothing needs to change right now, this decision isn’t absolute. Should Dimir Reanimator end up back on top before too long, then bans may eventually be necessary. Thankfully, ban announcements are fairly frequent these days, so Legacy players shouldn’t suffer for long if something bad emerges.
Pauper: Deadly Dispute
I am far from a Pauper expert, but many players in the community are calling for a shakeup. Black decks are very powerful at the moment, and while many different decks see success, there is a lot of overlap between top strategies. Deadly Dispute is in most of the top-tier decks and is pushing some lower-tier decks out of the format. This is due to its ability to accrue incredible amounts of value, which homogenizes the format.
Card advantage means a lot in Pauper, and this seems to be the best way to do it. Ultimately, we feel that Deadly Dispute has a strong chance of getting banned in the Pauper format.
Vintage: No Changes
Vintage is a tough format to evaluate, but looking at recent results, things seem ok. While all of Vintage’s decks use the same underlying Restricted package, there don’t seem to be any 4-copy cards that are dominating the format. Considering that Vintage is rarely shaken up by new cards, thanks to its incredibly high power level, this isn’t really a surprise.
Final Thoughts
Of all the bans suggested in this article, it feels like Pauper and Modern are the only formats in dire need of repair. In a perfect world, we’ll see some unbans accompanying this since it creates a lot of interest for players to explore. If Wizards decides to take the safer route, however, unbanning cards may not happen.
Ultimately, given the problems that we’ve seen in Modern recently, it might be time to question the rigid structure of Wizards’ ban schedule. While these predetermined announcements do help reassure players that their favorite decks will randomly disappear, it also allows problems to persist. As we’ve seen with Modern, this can drive players away from the format and cause a lot of discontent.
At the end of the day, the fixed ban schedule is probably a necessary evil. When it was first announced, we all relished the stability it provided, and that hasn’t exactly gone away. Perhaps a pre-announced emergency ban would be a good middle ground, but that remains to be seen.
For now, we can only hope that the upcoming ban announcement will strengthen MTG’s many formats rather than plunge them into chaos. At the very least, it’s going to be an interesting time for Modern, Legacy, and Standard players.
