This coming Monday, a major ban announcement is scheduled to take place. While we know it won’t be affecting Modern as to not mess with the Regional Championship Qualifier season, the other major formats are all subject to change.
There are a lot of different directions Wizards of the Coast could take with this announcement. Nonetheless, some changes feel almost inevitable. In preparation for the announcement, we wanted to go over our predictions for what these bans could bring. To start, we need to discuss the elephant in the room: the Standard format.
Standard
As things currently stand, the Standard format is in a very hostile state. Pro Tour Final Fantasy which took place last weekend was a pretty good indicator of the problematic nature of the format.
First and foremost, Izzet Prowess made up over 40% of the field. This is a significantly higher percentage than even Esper midrange at Pro Tour Thunder Junction, which made up just over 31% of the room. Not only is Izzet Prowess absurdly dominant, it also has heavily warped the format around it.
Mono-red aggro and Azorius Omniscience combo, the second and third most played decks at the Pro Tour, rely on maindeck copies of Magebane Lizard and Temporary Lockdown, respectively, to help keep Prowess in check. This is very telling about the Standard environment, and showcases the importance of a ban to open up the metagame.
Regarding the most likely culprit, Cori-Steel Cutter is almost assuredly getting the axe. Cori-Steel Cutter snowballs out of control, and it’s easy to get value out of the card even if the opponent has an answer to the equipment at the ready.
Some players have mentioned Into the Flood Maw as a problematic piece of the puzzle, too. It gives Izzet Prowess a hyper efficient “get out of jail free card” against Temporary Lockdown and other premium hate pieces. Still, it seems unlikely action will actually be taken against this card, especially considering the existence of alternatives like This Town Ain’t Big Enough.
Given that mono-red also took up four of the top eight slots at Pro Tour Final Fantasy, a ban to something from that deck seems likely as well. Monstrous Rage in particular has received a ton of complaints over the past few months, in large part because it makes combat a nightmare.
This issue, coupled with the fact that creature decks that are light on removal have all but disappeared due to their inability to block profitably in the face of Monstrous Rage, makes Monstrous Rage a prime candidate for the ban hammer.
Cori-Steel Cutter and Monstrous Rage are at the top of the list, but it’s possible Wizards goes even further. There’s a bit of a concern that with Prowess out of the picture, Azorius Omniscience combo becomes a crushing force. The deck got a lot better with the inclusion of the Dragons package, so seeing Omniscience get banned straight up wouldn’t be too shocking.
Finally, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention Stock Up and Vivi Ornitier. Stock Up appeared in a whopping 61% of decks at Pro Tour Final Fantasy, just 8% less than Oko, Thief of Crowns at Mythic Championship VI. Meanwhile, Vivi combo centered around Agatha’s Soul Cauldron is the new hotness, which conveniently doesn’t play Cutter, Rage, or Stock Up!
Ultimately, we think the ban will just feature Cutter and Rage, as we don’t think Stock Up is inherently oppressive and it’s probably too early for Vivi to get banned. Just don’t be surprised if Vivi puts a chokehold on Standard moving forward.
Pioneer
This brings us to Pioneer. Pioneer is in a weird spot. With no major competitive tournaments in sight, the format has far from thrived. Most of the data we have is from Magic Online Challenges.
By the numbers, you could argue mono-red aggro is oppressive. That being said, it’s also a rather simple deck to pick up and jam. There’s a good chance if players had more of an incentive to try to exploit the metagame, we might not see mono-red continue to put up insane results.
The one major issue mono-red poses for the format for the time being, though, is that its current configuration makes playing certain strategies impossible. Monstrous Rage and the Mouse package makes playing other creature decks a dubious proposition.
On top of that, Sunspine Lynx has warped the metagame even further. There’s a reason the most played midrange deck is mono-black with a large density of basic lands.
So, despite our feelings that Pioneer isn’t in desperate need of a ban, we think there’s a good chance mono-red gets weakened one way or another. Monstrous Rage is our best bet for a ban, if any do occur, with Sunspine Lynx or Screaming Nemesis being alternative options if Wizards decides to mess with the anti-life gain package.
Legacy
Moving to Legacy, there are a few directions Wizards could take. Dimir is still an elite strategy, despite bans to Troll of Khazad-dum and Psychic Frog. Wizards has been adamant that cards like Daze and Brainstorm are cornerstones of the format that give Legacy its identity, so tempo decks should continue to thrive.
Some players have clamored for an Entomb ban, since it gives Dimir players access to an over-the-top win condition at little cost. We doubt Entomb will end up on the banlist still, in large part because that could kill Reanimator as an archetype entirely.
No changes feels like the most likely outcome here. If anything gets hit, it will probably be a piece from Oops! All Spells. This might not be the best Legacy deck, but it’s one of the most frustrating to play against. Nut draws are often unbeatable, making for a poor gameplay experience.
It’s also possible Wizards goes the route of unbanning cards. When Wizards removed Mox Opal and friends from the Modern banlist last year, it became clear that mass unbans could happen at virtually any point. Cards like Earthcraft and Mana Drain are on the shortlist of potential unban options. We still think no changes is the most likely outcome, though a handful of unbans or a Balustrade Spy/Underctiy Informer ban wouldn’t be crazy.
Pauper
Pauper received a multitude of changes back in March, and so far, the format seems pretty diverse. Red decks are still popular, yet nowhere near as dominant since the ban to Kuldotha Rebirth. Traditional Affinity’s stock has fallen with Deadly Dispute out of the picture as well.
High Tide and Prophetic Prism were unbanned, and neither mono-blue combo nor Tron make up an overwhelming portion of the metagame. Between mono-red, Rakdos Madness, Jund Wildfire, mono-blue Terror, mono-blue Faeries, Bogles, and more, a lot of archetypes are well represented, Pauper is in a good place, and any additional bans feel unwarranted.
Furthermore, the current banlist contains almost exclusively problematic designs, including Initiative creatures, broken sources of mana acceleration, and old Affinity staples. As such, there is very little room for any unbans to take place, either.
Vintage
Lastly, we have Vintage, MTG’s most powerful format. Vintage is in an awkward state. Blue Lurrus of the Dream-Den are everywhere. The value Lurrus provides in a format with lots of fast mana is already very high, but since the printing of Stock Up, Lurrus decks have grown significantly in popularity.
Lurrus was banned in Vintage years ago, before eventually getting unbanned following the rules change that taxes Companions. Restricting Lurrus doesn’t actually do anything, since it shows up as a one-of in the sideboard to begin with. Regardless of the change, Lurrus has proven to be a powerhouse with a low opportunity cost to play.
We believe these blue Lurrus shells will take a hit in some capacity. Lurrus may be on its last legs in Vintage. As for Stock Up, it makes some sense to have the elite card advantage engine join Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time on the restricted list.
Stock Up in a format with Moxen is trivial to cast ahead of schedule, and then makes it easier to find your other broken restricted cards. For this reason, we think Lurrus might be banned, and Stock Up will be restricted on Monday.
Similar to the Pauper banlist, there isn’t a ton of room for cards to be unrestricted in Vintage. Most cards are far too strong or promote poor gameplay, making it tough to go that direction.
With all of this being said, our final prediction is as follows:
- Standard: Cori-Steel Cutter, Monstrous Rage banned
- Pioneer: Monstrous Rage banned
- Legacy: No Changes
- Pauper: No Changes
- Vintage: Lurrus of the Dream-Den banned, Stock Up restricted
Stick with us here at mtgrocks.com: the best site for Magic: The Gathering coverage!