Monday’s changes to Modern have hit the format like an asteroid. The three bannings were largely expected, but the four unbannings certainly weren’t. Players are now scrambling to test new brews in the format, in a frenzy of creativity Modern hasn’t seen in years. Many of these brews are running Splinter Twin, a staple of old Modern now finally free from its banlist prison after eight years. As always, the secondary market has been quick to react here. Splinter Twin has seen a huge price spike since the unban, across all of its versions. Whether this will stick or not is up for discussion, but it’s impressive to observe all the same.
A Modern Icon Returns
- Mana Value: 2RR
- Rarity: Rare
- Type: Enchantment – Aura
- Card Text: Enchant creature. Enchanted creature has “Tap: Create a token that’s a copy of this creature, except it has Haste. Exile that token at the beginning of the next end step.”
For many reading this, Splinter Twin will need no introduction. The card was an integral part of the Modern format for five years, from its inception in 2011 to 2016. Players of the then-new format quickly discovered the interaction between Twin and Deceiver Exarch/Pestermite. Put Splinter Twin on either of these creatures, and you create an infinite combo that wins the game on the spot. These decks were typically known as Splinter Twin decks, and they came in various flavors and styles. They were also incredibly popular, forming a significant part of the metagame circa 2016.
Unfortunately, this golden era wouldn’t last. Splinter Twin was banned in Modern on January 18th, 2016. In the article explaining the decision, Wizards noted that the card was simply too popular, and that they were banning it “in the interest of competitive diversity.” At the time, this was a valid concern. Dedicated Splinter Twin decks were good alone, but players were also just slotting the combo into existing shells like Jeskai Control. As the power level in Modern has risen over time, however, calls for an unban on Splinter Twin have come frequently from the community. “Unban Twin” actually became something of a meme as a result.
Well, it turns out the line between memes and reality is thinner than we realize. After eight long years, Splinter Twin was finally unbanned in Modern as part of Monday’s landmark announcement. In its explanation, Wizards cited the increased power level of Modern as the reasoning behind this decision. Free counterspells like Force of Negation now exist in the format, which makes a four-mana combo piece much less attractive. Decks are also just much faster in general these days, which is another knock against it.
The Splinter Twin Price Spike
Despite these logical explanations as to why Splinter Twin won’t make much of an impact in Modern post-unban, the card has experienced a serious price spike over the last couple of days. The original Rise of the Eldrazi printing has seen the biggest jump, going from $6.50 to $29.50: an increase of over 350%.
Other printings of the card have seen similar action. The Modern Masters 2015 version has gone from around $6 to around $24. Not quite as impressive as the original, but still a solid 300% increase. Given how much more widely-opened Modern Masters 2015 was than Rise of the Eldrazi, it makes sense there would be more copies of this one floating around, and thus a lower markup.
The same can’t really be said for The List printing of Splinter Twin. This is the last version of the card, and it’s also weirdly the most affordable. The spike hit it too, of course, but not nearly as hard. It went from around $8 on Monday to around $14 today, which is only a 75% increase. That would make this version the best one to buy right now, if there were any copies left. TCGPlayer appears to be fully sold out of this printing at present.
That’s not too surprising, given the relatively low quantities of List cards that tend to be available. The lower price is surprising, however. Perhaps the low initial stock prevented the kind of sales momentum the other versions experienced this week, leaving it at a fairly reasonable price. Whatever the reason, I expect this version to climb further if demand for the card stays high.
Looking Ahead
That brings us to the million-dollar question: is the Splinter Twin price spike legit, or just a temporary flash in the pan? This is a tricky question to answer, since the hype around the card is so fresh. Splinter Twin may have been a bit too good in 2016 Modern, but it was also very popular. For those who played with it back then, and even those who simply heard the stories, the chance to try it out now is an exciting one.
Based on early results, it may not be as much of a meme as Wizards thought, either. We’ve already seen multiple decks running Splinter Twin 5-0 Modern Leagues, including a new Boros Energy variant and an Izzet version running Fear of Missing Out. What’s especially interesting is how these lists echo those that got Twin banned. These aren’t all-in combo decks, but rather solid strategies that include Twin simply as another option. It’s possible that the card will have a format-warping effect going forward if this early success persists.
On the other hand, the current hype is almost certainly causing some artificial price inflation. Even at its pre-ban price peak, Splinter Twin only went for around $18 in the past. There’s an argument that demand is much higher now, but I still think $25-30 is a bit of a stretch. If the card keeps performing well it could maintain this price, but once things settle I expect it to come down to around $20 instead.
That said, it is worth noting that Splinter Twin is a hard card to reprint into Standard, and that no Modern Masters-esque supplemental sets have been announced for next year. Supply issues could come into play in a big way on this one.
