Another day, another MTG finance move based on Commander demand. Given this format is the biggest in the game, it’s little surprise that many cards become pricey based solely on their performance there. Case in point: On the Trail, a seemingly underwhelming green MTG enchantment that has spiked by 330% this week. Not far behind it, we have discard payoff Surly Badgersaur, which has itself jumped 260%. Both of these moves are driven by new Bloomburrow Commanders, with whom these hidden gems have finally found homes.
On The Trail (+330%)
On the Trail is definitely the headliner of today’s MTG finance action. This is actually a very recent card, originally printed in the Murders at Karlov Manor Commander decks back in February. Since launch, it’s been reliably available for around $0.50, but it’s been slowly trending upwards since mid-July. This past week, it’s exploded. On the Trail has jumped from around $0.80 to around $3, representing a spike of around 330%.
Why exactly is this? Well, it’s all down to our new Bloomburrow friend Ms. Bumbleflower. This is one of the set’s new face Commanders, with a fun Group Hug edge to it. While Bumbleflower is in play, each spell you cast triggers three separate effects, including letting an opponent draw a card. The second time it triggers in a turn, however, you also get to draw two cards. Thus fully fulfilling the ‘draw two’ condition for On the Trail.
This results in a ton of extra ramp, especially if you run a lot of Flash creatures and instants to trigger Bumbleflower’s ability on your opponent’s turns. Decks with high draw power, like this one, often have trouble making use of all those drawn cards before the late game. On the Trail solves that issue, getting lands out of your hand and providing mana to cast more spells in the future.
Since it only has a single printing at present, I can definitely see On the Trail climbing higher over the next few days. Its effect is powerful in multiple decks, not just Bumbleflower, and it’s cheap enough to be run pretty much anywhere. I’d predict a ceiling of around $10 on this one, though $5-7 is much more likely.
Surly Badgersaur (+260%)
Our other finance spike for today is Surly Badgersaur, another Commander deck exclusive finally getting its day in the sun. This is a straightforward payoff card for discard decks. Like a red Bone Miser, a very similar cards printed just one year earlier. Each time you discard with this beastie out, you’ll get one of three benefits, all of which are very relevant in Commander.
Surly Badgersaur has been a reasonably-priced card for a while, owing to the prevalence of red discard effects in general. Bloomburrow has added a new Commander with whom it works perfectly however: Flubs, the Fool. This bizarre Frog forces you to discard a card every time you play a card, provided you have one to discard. With Badgersaur out, what was once a brutal downside is mitigated a fair bit.
As a result, the price of Badgersaur has gone from around $1.50 to nearly $5. That’s a 260% increase, and it’s likely to go up from there. Flubs has been getting a lot of attention online, both from those who want to run him at the front of meme decks and from serious cEDH players. For that reason, I see more gains in this card’s future as more people pick up Flubs. Like On the Trail, it’s also an MTG card with broad applications, too. Madness decks like Chainer, Nightmare Adept and Anje Falkenrath consistently run it as well, for example. It will likely stabilize soon, but I don’t see our Surly friend being worth less than $5 again in the near future.
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