Standard is flourishing once again. At long last, the domination of Vivi Cauldron decks has been knocked thanks to a tweaked strategy. Now, Mono-Red Aggro is back on top, putting Vivi decks in their place. Admittedly, the metagame is by no means fixed, but recent performances have nonetheless spurred players into action.
Following Mono-Red Aggro’s win at Magic Spotlight: Planetary Rotation, there’s been a huge spike in the deck’s popularity. Not only has the warped the format’s metagame slightly, it’s also caused a range of price spikes. Multiple Mono-Red Aggro staples have been on the up and up recently, Nova Hellkite included.
Nova Hellkite
Played as a four-of across the main and side board of most Mono-Red Aggro decks, there’s no doubt that Nova Hellkite is a staple. Considering Hellkite is technically a five-mana card, this might seem like a bit of a surprise. In reality, however, Hellkite is essentially a three-mana burn spell for five damage.
Currently, this is some of the most cost-effective damage you can get in Standard, but Hellkite’s effectiveness doesn’t end there. For just two more mana, you can recast Nova Hellkite to swing in for another four damage with a ping on top. While Mono-Red Aggro will rarely want to go this long, an extra five damage, in exile no less, can easily finish off opponents.
Notably, Nova Hellkite is so effective at hitting hard out of nowhere that some Vivi Cauldron decks run it too. Typically, Hellkite will be relegated to the sideboard in these lists, but it nevertheless sees fairly widespread play. Mono-Red Dragons, Boros Burn, and even Gruul Delirium have experimented with this card.
While there’s no denying that Nova Hellkite is a good MTG card, it may become even better. When the November bans finally roll around, there’s a good chance that Vivi will go, and the format will be shaken up. If this happens, Hellkite may be adopted by even more decks, further pushing its staple status.
Notably, while it’s strong in Standard, Nova Hellkite sees basically no play in Commander at the moment. Barely 2,000 decks are using this card, according to EDHREC, which is an incredibly small amount. Due to this, there’s a non-zero chance Hellkite’s price could crash if the meta changes in an unfavorable way.
The Spike
Curiously, while Nova Hellkite has spiked significantly in price, the climb hasn’t been totally stable. Over the past month, in fact, the price has been a bit all over the place, thanks to the initial sales rush. Thankfully, things have calmed down now, but that’s not good news for budget-conscious players.
This time last month, while Nova Hellkite was still as powerful as ever, it was only worth around $0.84. This price fluctuated a little and steadily crept up, but things unsurprisingly ramped up after the Magic Spotlight: Planetary Rotation win. Not only did this event cause a bump in sales, but there were plenty of TCGplayer Direct purchases too.
As you can see, this quickly caused the price of Nova Hellkite to spike up to $3.41. At the time, however, there were still tons of copies available for around $1. This caused the market price to crash slightly before bouncing back. Now, those cheap $1 copies have disappeared from TCGplayer, and supply is waning rather quickly.
Currently, a non-foil near-mint copy of Nova Hellkite will set you back $3.04 at least. Beyond this, prices increase rather quickly, so as supply dwindles, the price may shoot up. At the moment, the are 180 near-mint copies available for purchase; however, that will only last six days if current demand persists.
Should you be in the market to spend some more money, there is a Borderless variant of Nova Hellkite. Unsurprisingly, near-mint copies of this card are currently selling for slightly more, with new listings priced at $4.40. While demand does appear to be lower for this variant, the increased collectible scarcity may push prices up faster.
The Future
While there’s no doubt that Nova Hellkite is a powerful card, there’s no guarantee it’s a financial heavy hitter. As mentioned, Hellkite doesn’t really see any Commander play, so it lives and dies on its performance in Standard. While this is good news right now, it could easily fall out of favor if the metagame changes directions.
Even with this in mind, Nova Hellkite does have some potential in the short term. Supply has steadily been decreasing since September began, and the card is still quite cheap currently. While it won’t be turning into a $35 card like Vivi anytime soon, it could easily be a $10 staple.
Ultimately, for the time being, Nova Hellkite is one to watch. Until November, this card is bound to see a steady amount of play, but after that, everything is unknown. If Vivi or Agatha’s Soul Cauldron gets banned, then it could become a meta mainstay. Alternatively, Mono-Red Aggro might pivot to a different strategy, pushing it out entirely.
Looking ahead, there’s also the growing possibility that nothing gets banned in November. With Mono-Red on the rise, and other decks in the wings, Vivi Cauldron does technically have competition. This would actually be good news for Nova Hellkite, as if the meta stays the same, then its position is secured.
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