Ever since it was announced that the MTG x TMNT crossover would be a small set, players were immediately concerned. Unless Wizards pulled something out of the bag unexpectedly, the issues that plagued MTG Spider Man could easily be repeated. Unfortunately, now that early data is available following the set’s digital release, things aren’t looking much better. It’s still early days, but it looks like the MTG x TMNT Limited metagame is seriously imbalanced.
Good Luck Beating These Cards
While every MTG Limited set is bound to have some broken bombs, the TMNT crossover is taking that idea to another level. According to 17lands.com‘s early TMNT Limited data, Sally Pride, Lioness Leader and Mighty Mutanimals have winrates that are higher than most cards at their rarity in any Limited set.
Sally Pride, Lioness Leader is the singlemost broken limited card we’ve seen in years. A 71% win rate is almost unheard of in any Limited format, with most limited bombs’ win rates being 5% lower, and it’s not difficult to understand why. A creature that essentially doubles your board presence is already a bomb, but someone decided that Sally Pride should be a repeatable anthem as well. The Lost Caverns of Ixalan’s Bonehoard Dracosaur from three years ago is the last card with a comparable number.
Sporting a whopping 65.5% win rate, Mighty Mutanimals is the most busted Limited uncommon we’ve seen in years. Creating a second body that can grow with subsequent creature casts, Mighty Mutanimals is both a two-for-one and a card that wins the game on its own. The win rate for this uncommon is so high at the time of writing that it rivals the win rates of the best cards, including rares and mythics, in other sets.
Red Looks Behind… Again
One of the biggest complaints about MTG Spider Man Limited was how weak red was compared to the other colors. Thanks to the set supporting only five archetypes, two of them were largely considered unplayable, seriously warping how the format played.
While TMNT’s red cards don’t look quite as bad as Spider Man’s, they do tell a concerningly similar story. Signpost supporters of the UR artifacts archetype still have reasonable win rates, but most of red’s more generic cards have a win rate below 54%, putting them firmly in D tier. The Boros signpost cards, The Neutrinos, Go Ninja Go, and EPF Point Squad, are also among the lowest win rate cards in the multicolor section.
While Boros did seem weaker than the other colors during the Early Access Event, this data basically closes the deal. Despite white having the most busted cards in the entire set, Boros will likely be an archetype you want to avoid in MTG x TMNT. If anything, this makes the win rate of Sally Pride, Lioness Leader and Mighty Mutanimals even more ridiculous, since these cards are meant to be played in the set’s worst archetype.
The Highest Win Rate Commons are… Mana Fixing?
While a multicolored tapland cycle is a very traditional theme in draft formats, its win rates rarely merit notice. That said, this time around, three of the highest win rate commons in the set are just mana fixing. Frog Butler and TCRI Building are the two best commons in the set, and Mutant Town is tied for the top six. Everything Pizza also has a 60%+ win rate, despite cards like Everything Pizza typically having a sub-50% win rate in most Limited formats.
While TMNT archetype data has not been released yet, this suggests that 3-5 colored base green decks are the best thing to be doing in MTG x TMNT, and by a noticeable margin. Most blue and red commons with comparable win rates to these cards are removal, further supporting a splashing strategy.
While this is somewhat concerning, it’s also not all bad news. This opens up another archetype for players to draft outside of the five supported archetypes, which may take a little pressure off of red’s poor limited impact. Izzet also doesn’t need its dual land to draft a strong deck, meaning that one of the red archetypes still looks reasonably playable.
It’s Still Early Days
While these early warning signs are certainly concerning, a week of MTG x TMNT Limited hasn’t even passed yet. This not only means that the set’s current outliers have a chance of getting watered down, but a few less popular cards don’t have enough data to even post a win rate yet. That said, all of these cards are either extraordinarily rare or don’t play well in a Limited environment.
MTG x TMNT Limited is also currently recovering from a bizarre error that caused Mythic Rares to be much more common than usual. This has slightly skewed the win rates for cards across the format, so there’s a decent chance some cards will shift now that things have been corrected.
Sadly, even if this does happen, it’s unlikely to resolve the balancing issues pointed out here. Red is only getting worse day by day, and many of the other outliers here seem to be core patterns in the format. While this isn’t good for MTG x TMNT, the set does, at least, look a little better than Spider Man, despite having a few unbeatable bombs.
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