It’s no secret that, up to this point, Vivi Cauldron had Standard in a vice grip. The deck dominated its competition, creating a one-deck format for the majority of Edge of Eternities Standard. Then, Spotlight Series: Planetary Rotation happened, and a counter to Vivi Cauldron was discovered.
A new variant of Mono-Red Aggro has entered the scene. Championed by tech options like Razorkin Needlehead, and took down Planetary Rotation over a field of Vivi Cauldron. While many speculated that the deck took advantage of Vivi Cauldron optimizing its strategy to beat the mirror, it appears that Mono-Red’s matchup against Cauldron is a little better than expected. It’s been a week since Planetary Rotation, and red is still destroying Vivi Cauldron. While Standard getting a little less one-dimensional is a good thing, it also means that the problematic Vivi Cauldron deck is a lot less likely to get a ban.
Standard is Slowly Healing
When we first pointed out that Vivi Cauldron was an issue, the deck dominated MTGO Standard challenges, consistently coming within the top 2 for every single Standard challenge until the Arena Championships. That high-level tournament, as well as Spotlight Series: Planetary Rotation, were completely taken over by the deck. Now that Red has been identified as a counter to Cauldron, however, the landscape has changed significantly.
Red is now the deck that’s putting up very strong performances in Challenges. Although it’s not at the same level as Vivi Cauldron previously, it is clear that Red is now performing better than Vivi Cauldron on a rather consistent basis. While Vivi Cauldron appears on most Challenge top 8s since Planetary Rotation, not a single Standard Challenge has passed where Red hasn’t appeared.
Notably, as time goes on, it seems that Vivi Cauldron’s Red matchup seems to be getting worse. Right after Planetary Rotation passed, a few Challenges had four Vivi Cauldron in the top eight, but never more than that. Now, some Standard Challenges are beginning to have as many as seven Mono-Red decks in the top eight. Despite this domination, there is some variance in the tech choices that decks make.
From current results, it appears that Vivi Cauldron has failed to adapt to Mono-Red. While daily events have a lot less on the line than a Spotlight Series event, some incredibly strong Pro Tour regulars can be seen in events like these.
If anything, this has cemented Red’s position in the metagame, essentially creating a two-deck Standard. While this is an improvement over a format dominated by just one deck, it still presents some issues. The question is whether this development will allow Standard to open up.
Is Standard Still Polarizing?
While Vivi Cauldron may now have a natural foil, it doesn’t necessarily mean the deck still doesn’t play a problematic role in Standard. If Vivi Cauldron ultimately gatekeeps too many archetypes from seeing play, it may still need bans. Vivi Cauldron falling off does seem to have given confidence to brewers to return to Standard, as we are now seeing a wide range of brews doing well in Standard Challenges.
Azorius Control strategies, for example, have flourished since the deck had a decent performance at Planetary Rotation. The deck may have a serviceable matchup against both Mono-Red and Vivi Cauldron, making it well-positioned in a two-deck metagame. This archetype would notably also take advantage of adjustments that Vivi Cauldron makes to take on Mono-Red, since cards good against that strategy likely perform very poorly against control.
Some other brews, including a new Mono-Green Aggro deck and Pixie-based decks, are also starting to see stronger results after Planetary Rotation. It’s not entirely known what their matchup spread is yet, but the archetypes are making small but consistent appearances in the Standard winners’ metagame across events.
Everything seems to be lining up in a way that suggests Standard is opening up after being dominated by Vivi Cauldron for so long. This is great news, but there is an imminent danger to this that could cause Wizards to skip banning a deck that really needs it.
More High-Stakes Data Required
This all appears to be healthy developments for Standard, but there is one thing to consider: a majority of serious Standard tournaments are now over. Sure, there’s still Store Championships with $90 promos up for grabs, and a massive series of Standard RCQs for grinders to play, but these all pale in comparison to a tournament that offers Pro Tour invites.
Fortunately, there are some mid-size Standard events this weekend. The MTG Arena Qualifier weekend is coming up, offering Arena Championship appearances to successful players. The Arena Championship is basically a super Regional Championship, with a lot of money and Pro Tour invites on the line. Competition should be fierce, and while we may not receive much information on what successfully qualifies, if a massive number of Vivi Cauldron decks make the cut, it would suggest that the archetype is still a problem.
Similarly, the Magic Online Standard Showcase Challenge is this weekend. This is an invite-only event with a MOCS and Pro Tour appearance on the line. The field for this event is exceptionally small, which means that there might be some extremely specialized decks that appear, but some of the best Standard players in the world will be competing in the event, which should give some direction on the state of Standard.
Back in the Nadu era, while the archetype saw less play in mid-size tournaments, the deck still routinely dominated top-level play, like this event. Vivi Cauldron might end up becoming the same sort of beast.
My bet is that this won’t be the case. Vivi Cauldron players have had time to adapt to the Red menace, but it really feels like they failed to do so, for now, at least. A new renaissance for Standard may be here, so long as Red doesn’t become as unbeatable as Vivi was.
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