For most Constructed MTG formats, ban announcements follow a rather strict schedule. Barring emergency bans, which are unlikely, bans affecting Standard, Pioneer, Modern, Legacy, and Vintage happen at specific intervals. The next announcement is scheduled to take place on November 24th.
Pauper, however, has its own committee that oversees the format, and thus banlist changes may occur outside of the usual time frame. Just a few days ago, Principal Magic Designer and Pauper Format Panel member Gavin Verhey provided an update regarding the state of the format. While no bans are taking place right now, it appears one card is on the watchlist and could get the axe well before November 24th.
The Update
According to Gavin Verhey, the Pauper Format Panel is continuing to evaluate High Tide’s place in the metagame. High Tide is a very polarizing card in Pauper, which has led to mixed opinions on whether the card should stay legal or not.
For those unfamiliar, the goal of the High Tide deck is to use High Tide to generate lots of mana alongside Psychic Puppetry and Hidden Strings. The deck plays a lot of cantrips, tutors, and card draw to help you churn through your deck. With access to enough mana, you can eventually mill your opponent out with Stream of Thought.
Gavin mentioned that the format is still evolving, so the committee would like more time before making a firm decision. A check-in, which could include a ban to the powerful instant, is to be expected either late September or early October.
Even though no official changes came about in this update, there’s a lot of information to unpack here. First and foremost, it’s safe to assume that only High Tide is under consideration for a ban. Other top-tier archetypes, including the other elite combo shell, using Balustrade Spy, likely won’t be touched.
Second, Pauper players should brace themselves for the possibility of a ban within the next six weeks or so. This level of transparency is unique and offers numerous benefits. High Tide enthusiasts who are looking to play in tournaments around that time now know that having a backup plan is in their best interest. At the same time, enjoyers of other archetypes don’t have to fear being caught by surprise and having their deck become unviable by a ban.
If High Tide’s position in the metagame progresses in a concerning way, Pauper players, unlike Standard players, don’t have to wait for three months for an inevitable ban. So, despite High Tide being a controversial topic among the players, it seems like most people appreciate the openness the update provides. Given the turmoil surrounding Standard and the lack of Standard bans, it’s clear some players wish that other formats got this amount of communication.
To Ban or Not to Ban
Despite Pauper players complaining about High Tide, Pauper’s problem child pales in comparison to Standard’s. According to MTGGoldfish, High Tide combo only makes up 7.1% of the metagame. This leaves High Tide behind mono-blue Terror, Jund Wildfire, Burn, and Balustrade Spy combo in terms of overall representation. Vivi Cauldron, on the other hand, is a clear power outlier.
This alone suggests that a ban may not be necessary. However, there are more factors that go into ban decisions than just a deck’s metagame percentage.
Many players have complained about how polarizing the deck can feel, especially to play against. High Tide combo is consistent and attacks on an unusual axis. If you are playing a strategy without access to lots of disruption or pressure, you’re in trouble. Blue decks like mono-blue Terror play lots of Counterspells and can back up the interaction with pressure from Tolarian Terror and Cryptic Serpent. Burn decks are very fast, and sideboard copies of Pyroblast go a long way.
The problem is that Blast effects only do so much against a deck with Gigadrowse and Counterspells of their own out of the sideboard. Despite playing red, decks like Gruul Ramp that can’t reliably apply lots of pressure have faded in the metagame in part due to the poor High Tide matchup.
The format-warping nature of High Tide is concerning. Playing against a non-deterministic combo deck that can take a long time to win also creates poor play experiences.
Nonetheless, some players feel like there’s still room for other decks to adapt. Pauper player Selkcahs mentions that Active Volcano lines up better versus Gigadrowse than Pyroblast, and there are potentially other niche cards that players will discover for the matchup. All things considered, High Tide is in a weird spot, and a ban could go either way.
Our Prediction
As a result, it’s very difficult to predict whether a ban is incoming. One goal behind unbanning High Tide in the first place was to give spell-based combo decks a better chance to make an impact. Gavin made it clear that if High Tide broke through to be one of the top three strategies, High Tide could end up back on the watchlist due to how frustrating it is to play against.
High Tide is right on the cusp of achieving this feat. As more Pauper tournament data is collected, we should gain a better understanding of whether a ban is imminent or not.
Right now, our prediction is that High Tide won’t get the axe in September or October, and that other top-tier strategies like mono-blue Terror and mono-blue Faeries will help keep High Tide’s numbers in check. If you’re a High Tide aficionado, though, don’t be surprised if the announcement goes the other way.
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