Thanks to being one of the few booster pack-based Secret Lair products, The Zeta Set was immediately rather contentious. Things only got worse once players discovered bizarre rarity downshifts that, initially, weren’t legal. For better or worse, Wizards later went back on these plans, allowing ten new cards into Pauper after banning two.
Unsurprisingly, following these new commons being made legal, on paper, on September 7th, the markets have shifted dramatically. At first, Baleful Strix shot up despite its plethora of printings, but that’s not the only one. Now, Cut Down has also dramatically spiked in price, despite it being on the Pauper Format Panel’s watch list.
MTG Cut Down
Originally released in Dominaria United, Cut Down immediately made a huge splash in Standard. At the time, this removal spell had tons of targets, as early threats rarely eclipsed five power and toughness combined. While it technically isn’t perfect, as pump spells could foil your plans, this still hit a lot of good stuff.
At the time, hitting
Bloodtithe Harvester
Bloodtithe Harvester
When this creature enters, create a Blood token. (It's an artifact with "{1}, {T}, Discard a card, Sacrifice this token: Draw a card.")
{T}, Sacrifice this creature: Target creature gets -X/-X until end of turn, where X is twice the number of Blood tokens you control. Activate only as a sorcery.
,
Ledger Shredder
Ledger Shredder
Flying
Whenever a player casts their second spell each turn, this creature connives. (Draw a card, then discard a card. If you discarded a nonland card, put a +1/+1 counter on this creature.)
, and even
Raffine, Scheming Seer
Raffine, Scheming Seer
Flying, ward {1}
Whenever you attack, target attacking creature connives X, where X is the number of attacking creatures. (Draw X cards, then discard X cards. Put a +1/+1 counter on that creature for each nonland card discarded this way.)
made Cut Down viciously efficient. At the very worst, it felt like a
Fatal Push
Fatal Push
Destroy target creature if it has mana value 2 or less.
Revolt — Destroy that creature if it has mana value 4 or less instead if a permanent left the battlefield under your control this turn.
in Standard, without Revolt being active. With this in mind, it’s no wonder the card saw widespread play until it rotated out.
Since then, Cut Down has struggled to get a foothold in any major MTG format. It does see some Commander play, in around 32,000 decks, but realistically it’s not the best there. Even with a fair few low power/toughness staples, the format’s love of big creatures makes Cut Down a tough sell.
In Pauper, however, many of the format’s best threats fall well within Cut Down’s removal threshold.
Sneaky Snacker
Sneaky Snacker
Flying
When you draw your third card in a turn, return this card from your graveyard to the battlefield tapped.
,
Guttersnipe
Guttersnipe
Whenever you cast an instant or sorcery spell, this creature deals 2 damage to each opponent.
, and
Refurbished Familiar
Refurbished Familiar
Affinity for artifacts (This spell costs {1} less to cast for each artifact you control.)
Flying
When this creature enters, each opponent discards a card. For each opponent who can't, you draw a card.
are all fair game among plenty of others. Notably, some Affinity heavy hitters, not to mention
Writhing Chrysalis
Writhing Chrysalis
Devoid (This card has no color.)
When you cast this spell, create two 0/1 colorless Eldrazi Spawn creature tokens with "Sacrifice this token: Add {C}."
Reach
Whenever you sacrifice another Eldrazi, put a +1/+1 counter on this creature.
and
Tolarian Terror
Tolarian Terror
This spell costs {1} less to cast for each instant and sorcery card in your graveyard.
Ward {2} (Whenever this creature becomes the target of a spell or ability an opponent controls, counter it unless that player pays {2}.)
don’t get hit, but this is very rarely a dead card.
With this in mind, it’s no wonder Gavin Verhey declared Cut Down to be a new best-in-slot removal option. This is also why the Pauper Format Panel is watching the card’s performance closely, in case it negatively impacts the format. Even with this being a concern for the future, MTG players haven’t hesitated to pick up copies of Cut Down.
The Spike
Since Cut Down fell out of favor following its rotation from Standard, it has long been a budget MTG card. On TCGplayer, you could easily pick up copies for just $0.44 prior to the Pauper changes being announced on September 4th. Following that fateful day, around 1,000 near-mint copies of Cut Down have been sold, pushing prices up dramatically.
Now, if you’re after a copy of Cut Down, it’ll set you back at least $2.48. This marks an impressive 463% price spike in just one week. With supply being especially low across the board, too, there’s a real chance this could increase before long.
Notably, while worse-condition copies of Cut Down have been bought up, foils are slightly cheaper. Currently, a near-mint foil will only set you back $1.23, up from $0.58 on September 3rd. While these copies are more affordable, foils can cause issues for tournament play, so Pauper players are likely purposefully avoiding them.
The same will also be true for the Promo Pack printing, and even the new cards from The Zeta Set. While these new Secret Lair cards aren’t foil, they’re so rare that they’re certainly not the choice for playable copies on a budget. Sadly, near-mint non-foil copies are the gold standard there, so it’s no wonder prices are up.
A Tight Turnaround
Notably, while Cut Down is already technically Pauper Legal, it hasn’t put up a great deal of results yet. This is due to the card only being legal on paper, as MTGO legality doesn’t kick in until September 23rd. With the majority of Pauper play happening digitally, a slow start isn’t as damning as it might seem for Cut Down.
Sadly, this does make predicting the future of Cut Down rather difficult, as its true strength is still being determined. That being said, realistically, there’s no way that Cut Down doesn’t make an impact on the format. The only real question is whether or not this card will be banned on either October 12th or later in December.
Should Cut Down end up being banned, then it’s highly likely that the current price spike will crash back down. After all, since Pauper is now propping up most of the demand, if that changes, it’d cripple the market. Equally, if Cut Down remains unbanned yet a dominant force in the metagame, prices could increase from where they are now.
Ultimately, as is often the case with MTG finance, we can only really wait and see what happens. Thankfully, we shouldn’t have to wait too long, as September 23rd is the next important date on the Pauper calendar. With Reality Fracture spoilers keeping us busy till then, hopefully the next few weeks will breeze by.
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