Spider Man prerelease is just a few days away now, and it feels like this set is not impacting the secondary market the same way that Final Fantasy did. When that set was revealed, cards for various popular Commanders began spiking overnight. The only card we’ve seen spike for Spider Man is a more generic card that helps Spiders everywhere.
Even months after Final Fantasy’s release, new cards continue to be discovered that have risen in price thanks to the crossover. Undermine is another card that garnered significant interest, but it took some time to reach its new price point.
MTG Undermine
Undermine is a pretty simple spell. Countering a spell and losing three life is a reasonable effect for three mana, but it’s not incredible. Undermine is generally worse than a two-mana counterspell that has no conditions, with one exception. When the loss of life is particularly synergistic, Undermine can shine.
The reason for Undermine’s sudden spike appears to be Y’shtola, Night’s Blessed. Undermine bizarrely appears in both Commander and cEDH builds for the Scions & Spellcraft Face Commander. One of the most popular Commanders from Magic’s Final Fantasy crossover, Y’shtola, Night’s Blessed cares about an opponent losing four life, awarding its controller with a card. Because Y’shtola will drain another two life when casting noncreature spells with mana value three or higher, Y’shtola turns Undermine into a counterspell that cantrips.
The biggest disadvantage to counterspells, especially in casual Commander, is the card disadvantage they create. While Counterspells are generally a one-for-one exchange in two-player Magic, they don’t quite equate the same in Commander. You and the person with the countered spell each lose a card, while the other two unaffected players don’t lose anything. Turning Undermine into a cantrip alleviates this downside. Counterspells do remain a necessary evil in the format because of how easy it is to win out of nowhere, and Y’shtola gets rid of Undermine’s greatest weakness.
Outside of Y’shtola Commander decks, Undermine only sees play in Premodern, and very fringe play at that. The card occasionally appears in Dimir Psychatog decks in that format, but has not seen play for months. Undermine was otherwise a popular Dual Commander card outside of Y’shtola decks a long time ago.
The Spike
At the time of writing, there are three different printings of Undermine. Two of these variants, the Duel Decks: Ajani vs. Nicol Bolas printing and the Starter Commander Deck variant, had a secondary market value of under a dollar three months ago. The spike was started by a massive increase in demand back in mid-June, likely as a response to players acquiring Undermine for their Y’shtola, Night’s Blessed Commander decks. Both of these printings have spiked to $6.24 and $6.97, respectively, after their spikes stopped at the beginning of September. The Duel Decks: Ajani vs. Nicol Bolas variant spiked 807% overall. This is the smaller spike between these variants.
The last variant of Undermine is the original one, printed in Invasions. Because of how old this variant is, it’s always had some value. Near Mint copies of this card have spiked from about $3.17 to $5.35, but supply has heavily impacted the price of this variant. A majority of the copies of Undermine from Invasions are not Near Mint. There are a total of 71 copies of Invasions Undermine at the time of writing, but only 13 near-mint ones. Those prices start at $8.99, not including shipping.
In terms of supply, the Commander Starter Deck variant of Undermine has the most copies available, by far. 317 copies of this card are currently available on TCGplayer. Only 52 copies of the Duel Decks: Ajani vs Nicol Bolas variant exist. Despite this, prices between all three variants are pretty aligned when shipping is included in current listings.
For Near Mint variants, the Duel Decks: Ajani vs. Nicol Bolas is currently the cheapest copy of Undermine available. That said, if you don’t need a Near Mint variant, there is some money to save. Moderately played versions of Undermines go for between $5-$6 across variants, but they seem to be the exceptions, not the rule.
The Future
Undermine seems to have found its new price point after players rushed to grab it as an upgrade for Scions & Spellcraft, or for their own Y’shtola decks. Right now, the card is holding pretty steady despite demand for Undermine being mostly nonexistent. Given the current situation, I expect Undermine to eventually start declining in price as available supply returns to healthy levels.
Undermine is a great counterspell alongside Y’shtola, Night’s Blessed, but the card isn’t good everywhere. Losing three life isn’t worth the downside of having Undermine be both three mana and two colors to cast. Add in the fact that, thanks to its printings, Undermine isn’t legal in Standard, Pioneer, or Modern, and its constructed playability is basically nonexistent. This card is way too slow to keep up in Legacy and Vintage, and even if Undermine were reprinted, it might be too slow for Standard.
This makes an Undermine reprinting an interesting idea. If Undermine gets reprinted in a Standard legal set, it will likely quash prices for the card. The card has only been printed in one main set, and Invasions was released 25 years ago. That said, if the card becomes viable in constructed, demand could persist, just from another source.
Ultimately, Undermine is trying to find its price point right now. As more Universes Beyond sets are released, interest will probably move away from Undermine and towards other cards. Undermine is too niche of an MTG card to get wide appeal, but, for now, it is very good alongside a very popular MTG Commander.
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