Right now, Magic’s Avatar: The Last Airbender set is enjoying some well-deserved time in the spotlight. The new set seems to be a winner on both gameplay and flavor fronts, and players are finding uses for its cards across all formats. Unfortunately, attention is a finite resource, and as a result, Avatar’s companion Jumpstart set is being largely neglected for the time being. Turns out, this could be a big mistake.
This week, Longshot, Rebel Bowman, one of the new Jumpstart-exclusive cards, is experiencing a truly ridiculous MTG price spike. If the card is as good as this indicates, we could seriously be looking at a $30 uncommon here.
A New Commander Contender?
Longshot, Rebel Bowman didn’t get off to the best start in life. As an Avatar Jumpstart card, and an uncommon no less, its prospects were limited from the beginning. On top of that, it didn’t get a particularly memorable introduction. The card was revealed alongside a huge batch of other Jumpstart cards in an episode of WeeklyMTG, rather than in its own dedicated reveal.
As a result, a lot of players either missed this card completely or saw it, shrugged, and moved on. This week, however, the tides of public opinion have begun to turn. DeckedOutEDH released a video gushing over the card’s power level, in both regular Commander and cEDH. This put a lot of fresh MTG eyes on Longshot, Rebel Bowman, which ultimately led to a buying frenzy and the card’s subsequent price spike.
In retrospect, it’s wild that this didn’t happen sooner. Longshot combines two effects that have traditionally been very popular in Magic: cost reduction and an AOE ping effect for casting spells. We’ve seen plenty of cards in both categories see Commander play just for offering one of these effects. Just look at Guttersnipe and Goblin Electromancer, for instance. Longshot’s effects are much more open-ended than these cards typically are, caring about all noncreature spells and not just instants/sorceries. On top of this, the mana cost here isn’t much higher than what you’d normally pay for an inferior version.
Cost reduction and mass player damage are common effects in Spellslinger decks, so collapsing both down into one card is huge for the archetype. Consequently, many players are now viewing Longshot as a new red Commander staple, and buying in accordingly.
The Longshot, Rebel Bowman MTG Price Spike
Longshot, Rebel Bowman’s price really started to move last Friday, November 21st. Starting at $0.45, the card’s demand rose through the roof, and the price has risen steadily to match. As of today, Longshot sits at $16.84 which represents an eye-watering 3642% price spike.
In many ways, this spike comes down to a pure supply issue. Put simply, the supply on Longshot is heavily constrained by virtue of being a Jumpstart card. Unless you open the Firebending or Rebelling theme packs, or get very lucky in a Collector Booster, you’re simply not going to get your hands on the card.
There aren’t even any rare variants to increase the card’s volume, like an Extended Art treatment or something similar. There’s one version of this card in total, which, ironically, makes it harder to open than Avatar’s chase mythics overall.
The card’s remaining listings on TCGplayer certainly reflect this. There are only 20 that can ship to the United States, all priced at $16 and up. Given how well the card has been selling over the past week, this supply likely won’t last long, which means this price could go even higher before all is said and done.
Playing The Long Game?
Going forward, the Longshot, Rebel Bowman MTG price spike seems like the real deal, and not just a flash in the pan. We’ve seen Jumpstart scarcity drive card prices before, and I think it absolutely will again in this case. Rev, Tithe Extractor still sits at around $30, for example, and that’s a card with far fewer obvious homes than Longshot.
Crucially, Rev is also a card that Wizards could easily reprint in a future product. Longshot, by virtue of being a Universes Beyond character, is much less likely to get the same treatment. This means the current supply issues are unlikely to change much for the foreseeable future. That said, the future is impossible to predict, as anything could happen.
Accessibility aside, the card is also just incredibly good at what it does. Players are already discussing the card as an addition to the 99 of popular decks like Vivi Ornitier and Veyran, Voice of Duality. As discussed in the DeckedOutEDH video, it even has potential in cEDH, thanks to combos with Underworld Breach and Lion’s eye Diamond, or Mystic Forge and Sensei’s Divining Top.
Overall, Longshot is the perfect financial storm of “useful card” and “low accessibility.” Unless something fundamental changes soon, I don’t see the price on this coming down for a while.
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