Two MTG formats were thought to be in dire straits. Legacy still looks grim. Grief holds the format in a chokehold, unwilling to let it go. If you’re not playing Rescaminator in Legacy, be prepared to lose to it.
Otherwise, following an absurdly dominant Pro Tour performance, Modern was in a questionable position as well. Nadu, Winged Wisdom put up an absurdly dominant performance, cementing itself as one of the best Modern decks in history. Simon Neilson, the winner of Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3, handed down his verdict: the card would need to be banned.
So, why is Nadu, Winged Wisdom losing?
Good, but Not Broken
Nadu, Winged Wisdom’s combo with Shuko and Springheart Nantuko dominated Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3. Not only was the deck oppressively powerful, representing 26% of the metagame and the top four of the event, but Nadu, Winged Wisdom also played in a similar style to Second Sunrise decks. Basically, this means that the gameplay is generally unenjoyable for players and viewers alike. Long, undeterministic combo turns slow down the experience immensely.
After this dominating performance, players were almost certain that Nadu, Winged Wisdom’s banning was a done deal. The certainty was so unanimous that Nadu’s secondary market price tag took a nosedive following its Pro Tour victory. Seeing the Pro Tour winning deck get cheaper after a victory is incredibly unusual, but if the deck is guaranteed to get banned, who wants to invest?
Despite this dominant performance, Nadu, Winged Wisdom, while keeping up with the Modern format, just seems to be in line with everything else going on. This is rather unusual considering the deck’s dominant Pro Tour performance. Let’s take a look at some recent event results from Magic Online. To start, let’s look at the Modern Last Chance Qualifiers.
Nadu’s Amazing, but Unbroken Record
Last Chance Qualifiers on Magic Online are even more competitive than Challenge events. There may not be as many players participating, but the prize for anyone who manages a 5-0 victory is massive. You get to participate in a small and very exclusive 32-ish player event. The winner of that event gets an invite to the Pro Tour and gets to play in the MOCS event on Magic Online for tens of thousands of dollars.
14 players managed to get a 5-0 result in Modern Last Chance Qualifiers. Of those 14 results, 6 of them were utilizing Nadu, Winged Wisdom. While this is still the most dominant archetype of the bunch, it’s not nearly as dominant as the Bird’s Pro Tour performance would suggest. Not even half of the successful players grinding these events got there with Nadu, Winged Wisdom. Other archetypes that made it all the way include Necrodominance, Living End, Goryo’s Vengeance, and Ring Control (namely the Jeskai variant from the Pro Tour).
Recent Challenges may tell a stronger story, though many MTG players may be avoiding the Nadu archetype for similar fears of getting banned. Looking at the last seven Modern Challenges that occurred on Magic Online as of the writing of this article, only 11 of the 56 top eight spots were held by Nadu, Winged Wisdom. Two of these Challenge events were taken down by Nadu, Winged Wisdom, and three slots was the most that any of the top eights had within them.
While Nadu, Winged Wisdom is undeniably among the best decks in the Modern format, maybe even the best deck in the format, it may not be broken enough to warrant a ban. This simply seems like a tier-one contender.
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Comparing to Legacy
Let’s compare this to Rescaminator in Legacy. Only six players managed a 5-0 record in the Legacy Last Chance Qualifiers. Of those, 4 were on the Rescaminator decklist. Notably, one of the two outliers is a Nadu, Winged Wisdom deck.
The same 5-0 reward for Last Chance Qualifiers is awarded to anyone who manages to top eight in a Showcase Challenge. A recent Legacy Showcase Challenge that occurred last weekend had 6 of the top 8 slots taken by Rescaminator. The deck made up the entire top four of this 290-player event.
While Rescaminator still seems to dominate more competitive events, Challenges actually tell a similar story to Modern for this archetype. Only 4 of the 24 top eight slots between the last three challenges were taken up by traditional Rescaminator lists. There were a few lists that were more all-in on the Reanimation package, as well as some lists that were more all-in on the fair game plan than normal. If these are included, the ratio becomes 6/7 of the slots, which is still far from absurdly dominant.
This is mostly due to the rise of Eldrazi Stompy in the format, which seems to have a good matchup against Rescaminator. This deck has been taking tournaments, and top eights, by storm lately. A lot of new Eldrazi, even the uncommons, have proven strong enough to see Legacy play.
Will Grief and Nadu Get Banned?
At this point, I could see a world where Nadu, Winged Wisdom does not get banned. Would that be a mistake? My bet is that it would. At this point, the assumption is that Nadu is getting banned at the next possible opportunity, which has caused people to shy away from the strategy. If players knew that Nadu wasn’t going anywhere, there may be a lot more enthusiasm to innovate with the deck. This, in turn, could elevate the archetype to a place where it is truly problematic.
Grief needs to leave the Legacy format. Rescaminator may have a few matchups that it needs to solve right now, but the dominance that this deck is putting up in more competitive events is oppressive, even to this day. Legacy, unlike some other MTG formats, is more community-driven anyway thanks to being impacted by the Reserved List. The community has made it very clear that they want Grief gone, so it should go.
Update: After the conclusion of the Modern Showcase Qualifier on Magic Online, it is clear that the Nadu Shuko combo is going to be an issue. While Nadu, Winged Wisdom has not been as dominant in more casual settings, it remains a bigger issue with stakes on the line. This deck is unlikely to survive the next round of bannings.
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