Today was a big day in the world of MTG, as a long-anticipated ban announcement revealed some major changes to a variety of formats. Grinding Breach unsurprisingly took a hit in Modern, and Legacy and Pauper saw huge bans that should shake things up considerably.
One of the biggest takeaways from the announcement, however, was that Standard and Pioneer remain unchanged. There was some speculation that self-bounce strategies or mono-red might take a hit, but that is not the case. Following mono-red’s absurd win rate in Explorer at the Arena Championship this weekend, though, it’s hard not to worry about the health of Pioneer moving forward.
Even if it might not seem this way on the surface, we’d argue mono-red in its current form is one of the most problematic archetypes we’ve seen in a long time, and the Standard and Pioneer versions are outrageously similar. This ban announcement missed the mark, and unfortunately, we have no choice but to buckle up for a crimson spring.
Alarming Data
For those that followed the Arena Championship this weekend, it’s hard to fathom just how successful mono-red performed. This wasn’t exactly a Wilderness Reclamation situation where everyone knew going into the event that the “deck to beat” would make up an absurd percentage of the room. In fact, mono-red wasn’t even the most played deck. That honor belonged to Rakdos midrange.
Yet, mono-red dominated the event by every metric. Out of the nine players that registered mono-red for the event, eight made day two. Six of those eight players made top eight, and by the time top four rolled around, only mono-red players remained.
Perhaps the most insane stat pertaining to mono-red is its day two win rate. Ignoring mirror matches, mono-red won 100% of its matches on day two. This is incredibly alarming, because there were a multitude of different decks present in day two. Azorius control with Beza, the Bounding Spring at the ready, Izzet Phoenix with a boatload of removal, and even Temur Analyst were all featured archetypes.
Mono-red in Pioneer is showcasing that its mix of speed and anti-life gain elements make it very difficult to gameplan against. Rakdos midrange has historically performed well against red aggro shells, but even the deck with a playset of Fatal Push at the ready is outclassed. When you factor in the fact that nearly the entire Pioneer mono-red deck is Standard legal, and it’s no wonder there’s a high level of concern moving forward.
Uncomfortable Play Patterns
Of course, a deck’s metagame percentage isn’t the only determining factor when it comes to making a case for bans. Furthermore, despite sharing a lot of the same pieces, mono-red in Standard hasn’t really proved to have a chokehold on the metagame.
Self-bounce decks are thriving, and there are a wide variety of other archetypes that are competitive, including Domain. In this sense, there’s still a hope that Pioneer will self-correct over time as players adjust to mono-red’s surge over the last month.
However, the issues mono-red presents in both Standard and Pioneer go beyond just format diversity. The play patterns associated with mono-red are extremely hostile for a number of reasons.
First and foremost, the threats are much stronger and far more synergistic than we typically see. The curve of Heartfire Hero into Manifold Mouse already puts a ton of pressure on the opponent. If the opponent is on the draw, they are forced to either have a one-mana removal spell or they already take four damage before they can interact.
Second, the existence of Monstrous Rage and Screaming Nemesis means that even the burliest of blockers can’t save you. Decks like mono-green Devotion in Pioneer that rely on Old-Growth Troll and Cavalier of Thorns as blockers to make up for their lack of removal spells used to line up well versus mono-red. This is no longer true.
This is a big part of the reason why decks like Gruul Exhaust and Gruul Delirium have fallen out of favor in Standard, too. Mono-red’s existence restricts players to either playing mono-red or playing a deck with enough removal to stave off mono-red’s early pressure. Other beatdown decks, such as mono-white in Standard or Modern, can’t compete with the efficiency of the red decks.
Lastly, even if you’re able to kill mono-red’s threats on curve, Screaming Nemesis and Sunspine Lynx coupled with burn spells can still end games after you stabilize. With so many haste creatures and Rockface Village in the mix, mono-red is excellent at getting chip damage in.
All of these factors combine to make mono-red a force to be reckoned with in Standard and Pioneer. They also make the mirror match a miserable experience. The person on the play is at a huge advantage. Not only do they get to push damage first, but trying to block in the mirror is a nightmare. The play/draw dynamic is arguably one of Magic’s most frustrating features, and mono-red’s dominance exacerbates the issue.
A Sad Sight to See
Mono-red’s ability to push out a wide range of cool but clunky archetypes is also extremely frustrating considering the nature of the next set. Tarkir: Dragonstorm, at least on its face, is all about awesome Dragons and neat three-color cards. Yet, there’s a good chance the red decks will render a lot of these tools unplayable.
Value-generating Sagas like Awaken the Dead and Rediscover the Way would have been super appealing in the past. Now, it’s really hard to justify playing these types of slow engines. Plus, these cards all require intricate manabases, while mono-red gets access to perfect mana with utility lands aplenty.
Similarly, other potent aggressive cards such as Descendant of Storms and Stadium Headliner that don’t fit the Mice shell will likely get pushed aside. We saw the same thing happen with Slickshow Show-Off. Despite being super strong, it doesn’t edge out Manifold Mouse of Emberheart Challenger. Unless you’re playing a deck with tons of noncreature spells that eschews the Mice package (and why would you), Slickshot Show-Off doesn’t fit.
The hope was that a ban to Monstrous Rage or one of the Mice could at least bring the deck down to Earth. Without a ban until late June, expect a lot of super cool designs to make little impact in the near future. It’s possible the printing of Wild Ride puts the deck even further over the top. Mono-red is as format-warping as it’s ever been, and Standard and Pioneer are suffering as a result.