If there’s one thing the MTG community loves at the moment, it’s a good ban. A couple of weeks ago, we saw no less than 16 cards banned in a huge November update. This followed months of players pushing for much-needed changes to be made. Now, with a seemingly fresh format and a brand-new set in Avatar to work with, some players are pushing for even more changes. Specifically, many think that Avatar’s big-money staple, Badgermole Cub, is worthy of a ban in MTG Standard.
The MTG Community Calls For A Badgermole Cub Ban
During preview season for Avatar: The Last Airbender, Badgermole Cub stuck out like a sore thumb. Pretty much everyone, ourselves included, rated it as one of the top cards in the set. Hopes and pre-order prices were unsurprisingly incredibly high. When it finally dropped last week, it actually exceeded expectations. The card immediately started showing up in decks across multiple formats, including established strategies in both Modern and Legacy.
Not content with just dominating tournament results, Badgermole Cub has been dominating the online conversation around Avatar since launch as well. Head over to X and you’ll find countless posts discussing the card. Most of these are simply players in awe of its power level. Many have also observed the absurd early turns the card can generate. Suffice to say, these are far beyond what is generally expected of Standard.
As is always the case when a Magic card sees this much discussion and success, there’s also a rapidly rising tide of concern around Badgermole Cub. Players are taking to X to call the card everything from “utterly broken” to “a fucking problem.” It’s not just individual posts, either. Content creators like MTGGoldfish have devoted entire videos and articles to discussing the card and the possible ramifications of it being in Standard going forward.
The discourse around the card has developed so rapidly that today, just four days after Avatar’s full release, players are predicting that Badgermole Cub will receive a ban in MTG Standard. Even by recent Magic standards, this is a quick turnaround. Both Cori-Steel Cutter and Vivi Ornitier at least got a few weeks of grace before the masses started calling for their heads. Our new friend Badgermole Cub is having no such luck.
Perception Vs. Reality
While these calls for bans are early, they are understandable. Badgermole Cub is one of the most obvious power outliers we’ve seen in a while, and its effectiveness is evident in every “look at this turn three” post made online. That said, it’s important to look at things objectively when discussing MTG bans. Right now, the data isn’t on the side of those complaining.
Badgermole Cub is seeing use in a wide range of Standard decks. The only two where it’s showing up in real numbers, however, are Simic Aggro and Bant Airbending Combo. Of these two decks, only the former has a notable meta share. According to MTGDecks data from the last two weeks, Simic Aggro makes up just over 11% of the metagame.
This is an impressive figure, but it’s not cause for concern at this point. Dimir Midrange is still outpacing it with a meta share of roughly 16%, for a start, so it’s not the dominant deck in the format. Even if their places were reversed, Simic Aggro would still be far from the problematic win rates we’ve seen on other recent ban-worthy archetypes. Izzet Cauldron, for example, held more than a 40% meta share at the height of its reign of terror.
When you zoom in and look at individual recent tournament results, the Badgermole Cub “problem” looks even less significant. In plenty of recent events, including yesterday’s Standard Challenge, Izzet Looting actually claimed a higher meta share than Simic Aggro. This was also true in Sunday’s Standard Challenge, where Mono-Red Aggro and Gruul Leyline also outperformed it. It’s clear from these results that the new metagame is still settling.
Simic Aggro has definitely received a huge boost from Badgermole Cub. That said, it’s still just a good MTG deck, and not one that really needs a ban to address it. This is doubly true when you consider the general absence of green elsewhere in the upper Standard meta right now. Other than 4-Color Reanimator, the color isn’t really represented in the format at all. Badgermole Cub has changed that, which is a big plus from a color balance standpoint.
A Rocky Road Ahead?
When you consider the above data, the early calls for a Badgermole Cub ban from the MTG community feel rather premature. Even if the card was part of the best deck in the format, things have only had a few days to level out. Asking for a ban at this stage, then, is almost certainly an overreaction.
At the same time, the fact that Badgermole Cub has gained so much ground with just a few days of play behind it is notable in itself. Prior to Avatar, Simic Aggro was a niche player with a low single-figure meta share. Now, it’s one of the best decks in Standard. Given a couple more weeks of iteration and testing, it could very easily surpass Dimir Midrange and claim the top spot in the format.
Cub’s performance in older formats certainly supports the idea that this might come to pass. At the Modern RC in Antwerp over the weekend, Yawgmoth decks put in a better showing than the archetype has in a good while. This was entirely down to the addition of Badgermole Cub to the deck. Factor in some great MTGO results in Legacy, and it seems reasonable to assume the card is too good for Standard.
Ultimately, whether Badgermole Cub will require a Standard ban or not remains to be seen. While an early ban would be a great relief to the community’s collective wallet, there’s just not enough evidence to support one yet.
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