The massive Pioneer Regional Championship in Washington D.C. has now concluded, and it’s safe to say that the overall metagame was quite diverse. There were a lot of different archetypes represented, even at the top tables.
Going into the tournament, it seemed pretty clear that Rakdos aggro, Izzet Phoenix, and Azorius control were among the decks to beat. As it turns out, those three decks would be the most played strategies on the weekend. However, a handful of other decks completely overperformed.
Thanks to Frank Karsten, we now know the general win rates of a bunch of the top decks. Multiple unique archetypes boasted neutral or positive win percentages against all three of the most played decks, which bodes well for their success moving forward. There’s still plenty of room for the Pioneer metagame to evolve, so let’s dive into the data and analyze how the format could unfold.
Selesnya Company and Rakdos Cauldron Shine
At the end of the tournament, the two decks with the highest win rates total were Selesnya Company and Rakdos Cauldron (not including decks with very minimal representation). These two decks boasted win shares of 60% and 56.6%, respectively. These numbers by themselves are extremely impressive and suggest that there could be room for the Pioneer metagame to evolve even further.
When we look at how these decks lined up against the top tier of the field, it becomes evident why these two archetypes performed so well. Selesnya Company split matches with Azorius control on the weekend but managed to emerge victorious in a whopping 79% of matches versus Rakdos aggro. Plus, it managed to win 59% of matches against Izzet Phoenix.
Beating up on Rakdos aggro does make sense. Archon of Emeria is a fantastic tool to help slow down Rakdos’ nut draws with lots of pump spells. At the same time, Skyclave Apparition lines up perfectly against tiny creatures, exiling Heartfire Hero while taking no damage. Having this level of success against Izzet Phoenix and Azorius control on top of that, though, goes to show that the deck may be poised for long-term success.
Enduring Innocence is one heck of a card against Phoenix and other attrition-based matchups. Notably, the data suggests that the Enigmatic Incarnation matchup is a bit tough, but perhaps increasing the number of Elite Spellbinder in the list could help. Some players opted for full playsets of Skyclave, Werefox Bodyguard, and even a few copies of Brutal Cathar in the 75 over interaction for spell-based decks. If Rakdos dies down a bit, this may not be as necessary.
As for Rakdos Cauldron, which ultimately won the event, it had a 54% win percentage against Azorius control and 56% versus Izzet Phoenix. Once again, it also dominated Rakdos aggro with a 71% win rate. Players are bound to gravitate towards the winning deck, which only makes Rakdos’ position moving forward more concerning.
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Poor Performers
Despite Rakdos’ mediocre win shares against Selesnya Company, Rakdos Cauldron, and even Azorius control, the deck still managed to win more matches than it lost. It was far from the worst performer in the tournament.
By far, the most miserable display came from mono-black Waste Not. This deck did poorly against all three top strategies. This includes going 3-6 against Izzet Phoenix. With access to cards like Go Blank, this is absolutely a red flag. Mono-black Waste Not won a putrid 36% of its matches. Conversely, mono-black Demons abusing the power of Unholy Annex/Ritual Chamber was the next strongest deck after Selesnya Company and Rakdos Cauldron based on win rate. If you want to play mono-black moving forward, the results speak for themselves about what variant you should pick.
The one other strategy to fall below the 45% win percentage threshold was Boros tokens. Boros tokens was a more popular deck choice than Selesnya Company or Rakdos Cauldron, but clearly was a poor choice overall. It got demolished by Azorius control and Enigmatic Incarnation on the weekend without picking up the slack much elsewhere. Considering the volume of removal spells the deck tends to play that line up poorly in these spots, this makes sense.
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Looking Ahead
Based on initial results, it would make a lot of sense that players would gravitate more towards Selesnya Company and Rakdos Tree than in the past. Azorius control should also continue to be a great option. Even as the most played deck in the room, Azorius control won 53.9% of its matches. This is remarkable given that 12.9% of players in the tournament registered it.
However, we’ve seen the Pioneer metagame shift plenty in recent weeks. Rakdos aggro took the format by storm, dominating earlier in September. Azorius control with High Noon rose up in part to help suppress the Rakdos menace. With a poor Rakdos Cauldron and Selesnya Company matchup, one would assume Rakdos aggro falls even further in general representation.
In theory, this could encourage players to try to stay one step ahead. If Rakdos aggro’s numbers are lessened considerably, it could be Enigmatic Incarnation’s time to shine. This deck was one of the few to perform well against Selesnya Company and Rakdos Cauldron, so it could be a good choice as things unfold.
For an even deeper next level, the more Enigmatic Incarnation decks and less Rakdos aggro decks there are in Pioneer, the better Lotus Field combo becomes. Lotus Field combo had a decent showing over the weekend but had noticeably polarizing matchups. It lost an astounding 82% of matches versus Rakdos aggro, while completely obliterating Enigmatic Incarnation players in its path. Archon of Emeria is certainly still a concern here. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me if Lotus Field combo found a time to thrive in the coming weeks.
Ultimately, this push-pull is a good thing. No deck feels overly dominant, and there’s plenty of room for metagame shifts and innovative decks to pop up. There are more Regional Championships coming up, too. So, stay tuned to see how the format continues to evolve.
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