If Magic Con Chicago showcased anything, it’s that Modern Horizons 3 is likely to be the MTG set of the year. Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth was released around the same time last year and is now MTG’s biggest set! While we do not expect Modern Horizons 3 to hit Lord of the Rings’ numbers, it could easily come close.
Not only is Modern Horizons 3 for the Modern players out there, but as discussed yesterday, the set has a larger Commander consideration than what the name would suggest. Even MTG Arena players don’t get to miss out on the fun!
That said, early prices for Modern Horizons 3 suggest that Wizards of the Coast and Amazon may be a bit too… overzealous. Amazon recently listed Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster Boxes for sale, and the price is a bit overwhelming. Needless to say, this has many MTG players concerned about the prices for Modern Horizons 3.
Magic’s Most Expensive Set Ever?
According to an early listing on Amazon.com, Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster packs may be the most expensive Booster Box that MTG players have had in some time. Heck, it could be the most expensive Booster Box ever at release.
$504 is an absolutely absurd number to ask for these boxes. To date, Collector Booster boxes are nowhere near this expensive in the current state of MTG. According to TCGplayer, Commander Legends is currently the most expensive Collector Booster box on the market, and it only retails for $381 a box. Notably, this box surged in price after its print run ran out, and was worth over $400 last year. This price point, however, is very much the exception and not the rule. Most Collector Booster Boxes from non-premier sets float around $200-$250 per box.
Collector’s Edition Decks
Insanely expensive Collector Booster boxes aren’t the only pricy item that has been announced for Modern Horizons 3. Wizards of the Coast also announced the return of Collector’s Edition Commander decks for this product. These decks have also demanded an incredibly high price on Amazon, with $600 being asked for all four decks!
All in all, the current prices on Amazon definitely suggest that Modern Horizons 3 will be on the pricier side of things. Even normal Commander deck variants are worth about $70 apiece. Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster boxes are currently retailing for $378 on the site, and bundles are floating around the $100 mark.
That said, just because these are the initial asking prices for these expensive products doesn’t mean that will be how much they end up being worth.
Market Rejections
Lately, many MTG boxes have had some pretty exuberant prices out of the gate. Murders at Karlov Manor showcased yet another price jump to MTG boxes, with Play Booster displays initially fetching a $150 price point on TCGplayer. Traditionally, Set Booster boxes from older sets tend to float around the $100-110 mark, and can even be worth under three digits. Despite the intended price jump, however, the market just didn’t accept it, causing the price of Play Boosters to eventually drop to the $110 range.
Despite stores potentially losing money on sales, it appears as though the marketplace simply will not buy these boxes at higher amounts.
Commander Masters is another good example of this. Any product related to the set was absurdly expensive at release. Unfortunately, these high prices fell short of the expected value from the set. Initially, the Commander Masters Set Booster box started out at $419 and has since fallen to $320. Commander decks for this set were particularly bad from this perspective. While Eldrazi Unbound held up to the $100 preorder prices, the other three precons plummeted thanks to dismal reprint value. Like Eldrazi Unbound, these decks all started around $100, and have since dropped to $50.
Looking at things further, prerelease prices for things in MTG often tend to be exuberant. Whether they’re sealed products or single cards, it is very common to see MTG products take a price hit once initial demand for a new product is satisfied.
This is all to say that, while initial prices for these Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster Boxes are $504, there is some serious doubt across the MTG community that prices will remain this way once Modern Horizons 3 hits shelves.
That said, if this set is as good as many expect, depending on just how many Collector Booster Boxes are available, prices could rise as a result of scarcity. Both Modern Horizons 2 Collector Booster Boxes and Commander Legends boxes are incredibly expensive because of a lack of supply. That, however, is unlikely to happen at release, but a while later.
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What Prices Will These Boxes Be?
As a reminder, Modern Horizons 3 releases in early June of this year. That means we still have another few months before the incredible set hits shelves. These prices, so far, definitely seem to be exuberant, but we have no way of knowing where prices will eventually fall.
It’s undeniable that Modern Horizons 3 is being treated as a monumental deal, so this set will have some monumental prices once it hits stores. Whether those prices stay the course or not, however, may be more up to the players than we think. Recent history suggests that the market is rejecting the higher price points put forth for recent MTG products, so we may have nothing to worry about.
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