For many Commander players, winning the game is not the primary objective. Instead, like in-game achievements, ‘doing the thing’ with your Commander deck doesn’t always equate to you being the last one at the table. Whether you’re trying to Fling Jumbo Cactuar at someone or show off an art-related build restriction, some Commander decks just win by making the table laugh.
Thanks to this, it’s not unusual to see some wacky cards occasionally spike in price, even if they aren’t that powerful. In the case of Prisoner’s Dilemma, however, it’s likely better than it looks.
Prisoner’s Dilemma MTG
Prisoner’s Dilemma is, essentially, a burn spell that deals a wide range of damage depending on how your opponents play its minigame. Giving options to choose silence and snitch, your interest is trying to make opponents vote for different options. This makes the card particularly potent when one opponent is ahead of the rest. In an effort to catch up, this could convince other players to choose snitch to dole out maximum damage.
Even if you manage to deal maximum damage with Prisoner’s Dilemma, a five-mana burn spell is still underwhelming without support. Fortunately, Commanders like Solphim, Mayhem Dominus and Obosh, the Preypiercer make Prisoner’s Dilemma’s game worth playing, dealing up to 24 damage if your opponents play wrong. After flashing the card back, you can even knock players out from full health.
Thanks to this, Prisoner’s Dilemma has become popular in Commander decks that can copy it. While these are far and few between, Anhelo, the Painter managed to win a smaller cEDH tournament with the card at the end of January thanks to its Causality trigger. If you manage to combine Anehlo with a damage doubler, Prisoner’s Dilemma can one-shot opponents. The card is also popular with Commanders that can grant the spell Lifelink, like Judith, Carnage Conoisseur, and Firesong and Sunspeaker.
The Spike
While Prisoner’s Dilemma is powerful in the right shell, it’s not exactly clear why this card is spiking. If anything, a few outlier sales may have caused this, with a copy of Prisoner’s Dilemma uncharacteristically selling for $96 last week.
Despite this, which has falsely skyrocketed the market value to $8 over the past week, Prisoner’s Dilemma has still seen a real spike over the last few months. Worth just $0.84 at the beginning of February, cheaper copies of Prisoner’s Dilemma without ridiculous shipping costs start at $3.88, excluding shipping, marking a 361% price increase. Recent sales, excluding outliers, have sold for around the same price.
Interestingly, if you’re looking to save some money on your copy of Prisoner’s Dilemma, the extended art variant is a little cheaper than the original. At the time of writing, near mint copies of this are still going for $3 without shipping. Sadly, outside of that, finding a copy of Prisoner’s Dilemma for less than $3 with reasonable shipping will be a struggle. That said, it might not stay that way.
Getting Cheaper?
The cause of the spike for Prisoner’s Dilemma is suspect, to say the least. The current market value of the card appears to be propped out by serious outlier sales, and the extended art variant’s market value is currently in decline. Without a significant cause to keep this card’s price propped out, I would be surprised if it didn’t drop in the future.
That said, while Prisoner’s Dilemma should get cheaper, it might not return to its current price point. Thanks to appearing in Murders at Karlov Manor Commander, there isn’t a ton of supply for this card to go around. With a spotlight now on the card, many MTG players could be picking the minigame up for their own Commander decks.
While predicting the future is always impossible, Prisoner’s Dilemma’s does not look bright. Without a strong reason for the spike and decline in demand, this really does look like a flash in the pan. All of that said, as always, anything can happen.
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