On Monday, November 10th, Wizards of the Coast has scheduled the next ban announcement. For everyone who has been frustrated with the Standard environment, the wait for change is finally over. While it’s all but been confirmed that something from Izzet Cauldron is going to get the axe, there are a lot of different directions Wizards could take when addressing the format at large.
Additionally, Standard isn’t the only format that could be affected on Monday, as there are a few other concerns that MTG players would like addressed. With all this in mind, there are a few likely candidates who could earn their place on the MTG ban list.
Standard
To start, we need to talk about the elephant (or Wizard) in the room. Almost immediately following rotation over the Summer, players began flocking to Vivi Cauldron, and it was clear this was the deck to beat. Unfortunately, over time, it also became obvious that no matter how big a target was on its back, the archetype would continue to thrive.
At SCGCon Orlando in late August, Izzet’s absurd day one win rate in the 674-player Spotlight Series event brought the deck’s representation on day two to a whopping 54% of the field. Wizards made a statement soon after, ultimately moving the ban announcement from November 24th to November 10th while mentioning that “Vivi Ornitier is warping the Standard format and likely needs to go.” The trend of Izzet’s dominance at tournaments hasn’t stopped since, with the deck most recently boasting a 60.8% non-mirror win rate on day one at the Spotlight Series in Liverpool.
All this data suggests that Wizards has no choice but to ban Vivi Ornitier, Agatha’s Soul Cauldron, or both. Given the levels of frustration within the MTG community surrounding the format, however, there’s a good chance Wizards will go deeper and ban another tool from Izzet’s arsenal. After all, players have already proven that they can have success abandoning Vivi altogether while simply relying on the power of Proft’s Eidetic Memory and creatures that draw cards when they enter. A deck dropping Vivi Ornitier and Agatha’s Soul Cauldron completely even placed 20th at the recent Spotlight Series Liverpool event, suggesting that a Vivi ban won’t actually impact the deck as much as we think.
Furthermore, some players have complained about how ubiquitous and flexible Into the Flood Maw is as a tempo element. It’s unusual to see a one-mana piece of interaction that can temporarily answer anything from Screaming Nemesis to Pinnacle Starcage. In this sense, a ban wouldn’t be shocking, but there’s a good chance the issues that Into the Flood Maw presents would diminish significantly if Izzet generally takes a big hit.
The last remaining quandary Wizards has to address is whether or not to ban cards from any other strategies. Even though Mono-Red Aggro and Dimir Midrange have paled in comparison to Izzet with regard to metagame representation, Wizards could easily decide to take further action in hopes of addressing player complaints and providing a bigger shakeup. If they go this route, Screaming Nemesis and Kaito, Bane of Nightmares are the most likely culprits to get the axe, given their frustrating play patterns.
Nonetheless, given that this isn’t the normal yearly scheduled Standard ban announcement, we think it’s slightly more likely that Wizards takes a “wait and see” mentality with regards to the non-Izzet decks. We also think Vivi is a more likely ban than Cauldron given its potential risky implications in Prowess-style decks. With this in mind, our final prediction is that Vivi Ornitier and Proft’s Eidetic Memory are the only cards to get banned.
Legacy
Moving on to another format that has been under scrutiny, there’s a solid chance something gets banned in Legacy this Monday. The issue here is that while many players have voiced their opinions and want change, there’s a wide variety of ban options that all seem plausible.
The archetype that is most likely to be addressed is Dimir Reanimator, which continues to make up a big percentage of the metagame even after bans to Troll of Khazad-dum and Psychic Frog. While bans to Daze, Brainstorm, or Wasteland are super unlikely given that they’ve been deemed pillars of the format, there are other ways to weaken the deck.
On one hand, a Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student ban would make a lot of sense, given just how well it pairs with all the aforementioned cards. It’s trivial to flip, and because it’s a one-drop, your opponent isn’t guaranteed to kill it on the draw even if they have Fatal Push into your Daze backup.
On the other hand, though, Reanimator’s long-sustained excellence could cause Wizards to nuke the Reanimator package and get rid of Entomb once and for all. The fact that Entomb acts as a tutor and discard outlet wrapped into one makes the Reanimator deck so much more consistent. Still, by banning Entomb, you run the risk of all forms of Reanimator completely falling off the map, so there’s a good chance Wizards opts to take a different approach to prevent killing off the deck.
Beyond Dimir staples, many players feel The One Ring has overstayed its welcome. The fact that it sees play in Mystic Forge Combo, Red Stompy, and Cloudpost makes it feel homogenous, and it completely takes over games once it sticks.
Some players even think Nadu, Winged Wisdom is banworthy. Even ignoring metagame considerations, Nadu suffers from some of the same problems as Sensei’s Divining Top, requiring an overwhelming number of game actions that can ultimately result in tournament round delays.
Still, with Dimir Reanimator being the clear best deck, we don’t believe Wizards will branch beyond that archetype with the announcement. As for how they address Dimir, Wizards has consistently banned one-mana and two-mana tempo plays that take over games (like Dreadhorde Arcanist and Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer), and Tamiyo falls into this camp. As such, our prediction is that Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student only will be banned in Legacy.
Pauper
Besides Standard and Legacy, we know for a fact that an update will be provided on Monday regarding the Pauper format. Gavin originally stated back in August that the Pauper Format Panel was in the midst of evaluating High Tide, and we’ll finally get our answer soon on whether the card will earn the banhammer.
Since August, though, the Pauper metagame has evolved in a way that is unfavorable for High Tide. According to MTGGoldfish, both Mono-Blue Terror and Mono-Red Madness/Burn decks make up a significantly larger portion of the metagame than Mono-Blue High Tide. Mono-Blue Terror’s mix of counter magic and efficient threats that close games in a flash makes the deck a very poor matchup for High Tide. Similarly, the red decks can present a fast clock backed up by “Blast” effects out of the sideboard that High Tide combo will struggle to beat.
As a whole, the Pauper metagame remains very diverse, with Jund Wildfire, Elves, and a variety of other archetypes continuously putting up strong results. With all these factors in mind, our prediction is that no changes will be made on Monday.
Pioneer and Modern
Outside of these three formats, there isn’t a cause for concern about a particular card getting banned. The latest Modern Pro Tour featured an extremely diverse metagame with a healthy mix of aggro, combo, and control decks alike. In a similar vein, Pioneer has experienced many ebbs and flows in the metagame, with new decks like Five-Color Spider Combo adding extra excitement to the format.
While Wizards may opt to highlight a particular archetype that they’re keeping an eye on, such as Amulet Titan in Modern, any bans at this time seem unwarranted. Therefore, our prediction for Pioneer and Modern is that no changes will be made.
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