When it comes to Outlaws of Thunder Junction, the most sought-after card from the set is Bristly Bill, Spine Sower. Whether you’re playing Commander or constructed, this card is currently experiencing tons of demand. It’s always been an expensive card, too, so for this card to double in price, something must be up.
Bristly Bill, Spine Sower
Bristly Bill, Spine Sower has routinely appeared across constructed and Commander. The core of this card’s demand certainly originates in Commander, where it remains one of the most efficient +1/+1 counter payoffs in MTG. Not only can Bristly Bill start growing your creatures immediately thanks to its Landfall ability, but doubling all of your counters for just five mana is a great rate for a creature that already does so much.
This means that Bristly Bill can also see play in Landfall decks. The activated ability that Bristly Bill has makes him a self-contained engine, turning your smaller creatures into massive threats as the game passes. In fact, according to EDHREC, Bristly Bill sees more play in Landfall decks than +1/+1 counter decks.
While that may be the case, part of the reason for Bristly Bill’s sudden spike is due to its immense synergy with the Final Fantasy X-themed precon, Counter Blitz. Not only does Bristly Bill make for a great upgrade to this deck, but the cards introduced empower +1/+1 counter strategies across the board, giving new tools for any deck that runs Bristly Bill, Spine Sower. Even as a Commander, Bristly Bill got a massive upgrade via Sphere Grid, the most important mechanically unique card from Counter Blitz.
Bristly Bill’s Constructed Emergence
The overall interest in +1/+1 counter strategies in Commander is likely the main reason for Bristly Bill’s price increase, but a recent breakout Standard deck also employs four copies of this card. Revolving around +1/+1 counter and Landfall synergies, Mono-Green Aggro is one of the stronger Standard decks going into Edge of Eternities rotation. Some impressive Mono-Green support, like Frenzied Baloth, suggests that the deck might get even better once Edge of Eternities is Standard legal.
This Mono-Green Stompy deck is capable of pulling off some incredible feats, like swinging for 48 trample damage with Mossborn Hydra as early as turn four. There’s certainly enough potential for this deck to be considered for the upcoming Standard RCQ season, adding even more demand for Bristly Bill, Spine Sower.
Finally, Bristly Bill does see a little play in older formats, but the card has grown a lot less popular there once Nadu, Winged Wisdom was banned in Modern. You will occasionally see Bristly Bill in Legacy Nadu decks, and the card is otherwise rather popular in cEDH in Duel Commander.
Long story short, Bristly Bill, Spine Sower basically sees play everywhere, and a lot of this play is relatively recent developments, causing a major demand spike for the Legend.
The Spike
Bristly Bill, Spine Sower has, overall, spiked from about $28 to $36 between May and June, before rocketing off to its current price point of $60. The most extreme demand for Bristly Bill during this time occurred in mid-May following the reveal of the Counter Blitz Commander precon. Following this, there was another surge in demand shortly after the initial release of Final Fantasy.
As if that somehow wasn’t enough, sales would spike once again in mid-July once Mono-Green Aggro started gaining in popularity in Standard. Considering that the Store Championships offering $250+ promo cards were being held during this time, Standard players certainly had strong incentives to build decks.
While Bristly Bill, Spine Sower is holding pretty steady at $60 for its traditional variant, finding it for $55 shouldn’t be too difficult. There are otherwise some significantly cheaper deals that show up occasionally, but this does not seem to be a consistent pattern. The number of listings between all variants is relatively healthy, suggesting that this current price point is starting to deter buyers. Sales have certainly waned in recent days, but that hasn’t stopped the card from spiking further anyway.
According to recent sales, the promo pack version of Bristly Bill, Spine Sower may be considered the cheapest, but this variant also has very little supply, severely limiting sales. Recent prices and sales suggest you can find this card for $43ish, but that might not last for much longer.
Traditional Foil Bristly Bills don’t seem to have a significant deviation in price from the nonfoil one. Extended art cards, on the other hand, do seem to have a small premium, consistently going for $60-70, regardless of whether the card is foil or not.
A Rock-Solid Foundation
The usual trend with cards that have price spikes due to Commander demand is for them to retract a bit once the MTG community moves on to new Commander themes from the latest set. Bristly Bill, Spine Sower certainly benefits from Final Fantasy, but because the card is seeing play in so many different places, it may not experience a dip after Commander players start building with Edge of Eternities’ themes.
If Mono-Green Aggro remains a strong Standard option, demand for Bristly Bill will become consistent from that community. Add in the Duel Commander and cEDH play he sees, and Commander players will likely continually want this card, even after Final Fantasy moves on.
That’s not to say that a shift away from counters won’t impact Bristly Bill’s price point. It will likely just have a smaller one. I would expect a dip in price eventually as Bristly Bill tries to find its true price point, but most of this spike could be permanent.
While that makes sense to us, truly telling the future is impossible. If Mono-Green flops, and Commander moves on from +1/+1 counters, Bristly Bill could fall back to $30. That said, according to EDHREC, +1/+1 counters are the third-most popular Commander type ever, with over 140,000 decks registered with the theme. The card should continue to have consistent demand solely from that perspective.