Ever since Modern Horizons 3’s seismic arrival last year, Boros Energy has been the best deck in Modern. It’s such a consistent archetype that it managed to survive a double-ban back in December last year. Energy briefly ceded ground to Grinding Breach combo decks before Breach got banned itself, but otherwise, it’s been the top dog for almost a year. With all of this in mind, the fact that Boros Energy barely made a dent in the top tables at Magic Spotlight: Secret Lair over the weekend is a big surprise indeed.
This was a major Modern event, drawing over 680 players in total. You’d expect Boros Energy, as the current deck to beat, to place well among them, but that simply wasn’t the case. Instead, a range of different decks, some relatively new, claimed the top spots for themselves. Whether this points to a shift in the Modern metagame, and Boros Energy’s place in it, remains to be seen. For now, it’s clear that calls for more Boros Energy bans from players were likely unnecessary.
Boros Energy Falls Flat At Magic Spotlight: Secret Lair
Boros Energy’s performance at Magic Spotlight: Secret Lair is a major surprise. The deck took none of the top eight spots for the event, and only one of the top 16. That deck was a Mardu variant of the strategy, too, which muddies the waters somewhat. Even coming down to the top 32, only three Boros Energy lists made the cut.
When you look at the general play stats for Boros Energy in Modern, these results seem a bit off. According to MTG Decks, Boros Energy makes up 15.74% of the Modern metagame right now. That makes it nearly twice as popular as the runner-up, Eldrazi Ramp, which is currently sitting at an 8.97% meta share.
It’s worth noting that Boros Energy did make a good showing at the event overall. Looking at the final stats, the deck made up 14% of the field at Magic Spotlight: Secret Lair. That’s around 95 Boros Energy lists across the 682 participants. These numbers are roughly in line with what we see out in the wild, in general day-to-day Magic events.
What this shows is that, while only slightly less people were playing Boros energy at the Spotlight than average, the deck has lost a lot of its dominant edge. Wizards noted that they were “watching Red-White Energy variants the closest” back in March, and there have been constant calls for further action on the deck even after last year’s bans, some less than a month ago. With its performance this weekend, however, it’s clear that Boros Energy isn’t the major meta tyrant it once was.
An Evolving Metagame
This isn’t an isolated incident, either. Boros Energy didn’t just fall short at Magic Spotlight: Secret Lair, it’s also been on a bit of a decline in regular events. Looking over the Modern Challenges and Leagues from the last week or so, the deck is showing up in small numbers and not placing particularly well a lot of the time. Clearly the metagame has started to move on.
Look at the other big decks from Magic Spotlight: Secret Lair, for example. Izzet Prowess was hot on Boros Energy’s heels in terms of overall representation, with a 13% meta share at the event. It also placed better too, with a deck in the top four and two in the top 32. This is a relatively new strategy in Modern, powered by current Standard scourge Cori-Steel Cutter. While it doesn’t have the same mid-game potential as Energy, it comes down and ends games much faster.
The other big winners from the event were Gruul Broodscale and Orzhov/Esper Blink. Neither of these are new decks in the way that Izzet Prowess is, but both are clearly well-suited to the format as it is. According to MTG Decks data, Broodscale is slightly favored against both Boros Energy and Izzet Prowess, while Blink is at a slight disadvantage in both matchups. Blink does well against other popular decks like Yawgmoth, Izzet Murktide and Dimir Oculus, however, which explains its strong positioning.
On top of this, there’s also the matter of Combo decks to consider. Both Mono-Blue Belcher and Amulet Titan are on the rise in Modern right now, and both have favorable winrates against Energy. Amulet Titan had a respectable 8% meta share in the Spotlight, but the mere existence of these decks was likely enough to drive down Energy numbers for the event.
What Does The Future Hold?
Looking at all of the above, it’s clear that Boros Energy didn’t slip purely for Magic Spotlight: Secret Lair. The deck is actually on a bit of a decline overall, due to a combination of factors. The question now, for fans of the deck at least, is where does it go from here?
As a deck, Boros Energy is essentially a Midrange list with an aggressive slant to it. It can apply pressure early, but it also has staying power thanks to value cards like Phlage and Ajani. This is where its weakness to combo decks comes in. Where decks like Izzet Prowess are fast enough to get underneath them, Boros Energy usually can’t do so. It also lacks disruption and countermagic, so it has limited ways of interacting with Belcher and Titan.
That’s not to say the deck hasn’t tried to adapt, of course. Boros Energy has picked up a number of new additions recently, including Voice of Victory from Tarkir: Dragonstorm and Orim’s Chant. Voice is largely a tool for the controlling blue matchups, Dimir Oculus, Grixis Midrange, etc. Sadly, it doesn’t do much against the decks that crushed Energy at the weekend. Orim’s Chant does help out against combo decks, essentially letting you take an extra turn to press an early advantage, delaying your demise.
These innovations are great, but they likely won’t be enough to get Boros Energy back to its prime. A 14% meta share is nothing to sniff at, mind you, so it’s hard to view this as anything other than a positive thing for the Modern metagame.
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