This past weekend, we got a good glimpse at the what the Standard format looks like on a highly competitive stage. Regional Championship Bologna featured over 1,000 players, all battling for money, pride, and Pro Tour invites.
Undoubtedly, the biggest takeaway from the event was the sheer dominance of Izzet Prowess. Izzet Prowess is an up-and-coming archetype that got a huge upgrade from Tarkir: Dragonstorm in the form of Cori-Steel Cutter.
Many players have voiced their frustration with how the Standard format has evolved, and unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be a great solution. Before we discuss what makes Izzet Prowess so strong and format-warping, we first need to look at the Regional Championship data and see what made Izzet such a big outlier.
Regional Championship Data
Going into the event, it was pretty expected that red decks would have a decent showing. Red aggro has been a dominant archetype for months, and there was no reason to believe the style of deck wouldn’t be heavily represented.
What was a bit surprising, however, was that Izzet Prowess was significantly more popular than the more traditional mono-red builds. Mono-red was the second most played deck on day one at the Regional Championship, making up 10.9% of the metagame. Izzet Prowess, on the other hand, ate up a 16.7% metagame share.
Izzet Prowess, for reference, doesn’t utilize cards like Heartfire Hero or Manifold Mouse. Instead, the deck tends to be more spell centric, helping to maximize Prowess threats in the form of Stormchaser’s Talent, Cori-Steel Cutter, and in many cases, Monastery Swiftspear and Slickshot Show-Off.
By itself, a 16.7% metagame share isn’t too overwhelming. Compared to other decks that have resulted in quick bans in the past, the percentage is rather low. For example, Temur Reclamation, one of Standard’s most infamous archetypes, boasted a whopping 40% day one showing at Players Tour Online 1 a few years back. Once we factor in Izzet Prowess’s success rate, however, things start to look a bit more bleak.
Among the top 10 most heavily played archetypes from day one, Izzet Prowess boasted the highest non-mirror match win rate at 55%. This is incredibly impressive considering the sheer volume of players that registered the deck for the event. By contrast, mono-red aggro finished day one with a 48% non-mirror match win rate.
Further, three Izzet Prowess players made top eight of the Regional Championship, and the finals of the event was an Izzet Prowess mirror. Not only was Izzet Prowess heavily represented, but it also displayed dominant results. As you might suspect, a lot of players were quick to share their thoughts.
A Growing Concern
Monstrous Rage has been a major talking point for months now. Many players have been adamant that the card is harmful to the format, and that red decks need to be weakened. Following Izzet Prowess’s elite showing, ban talks have only increased.
Popular content creator Saffron Olive calculated that between the top eights of this weekend’s four Magic Online Standard Challenges and the Regional Championship, Monstrous Rage appeared in 45% of decklists. Many players have expressed their frustration with the gameplay patterns it creates, suggesting that whether you block or don’t block, you’re in rough shape if the opponent has their one mana trick.
It’s clear that players are growing tired of how prevalent the red decks are in Standard. Given that Monstrous Rage is really the only elite card that overlaps between mono-red and Izzet Prowess, it seems natural to call for the potent instant to get banned.
You might be surprised to find that a Monstrous Rage ban would do much less than you think.
A Wealth of Issues
Standard has reached a point where the assertive red decks are incredibly adaptable. The Regional Championship gave us a great look at the high level of variation that can take place from decklist to decklist. We mentioned that the suite of threats vastly differs between Izzet Prowess and mono-red aggro, but that’s just the beginning.
While the Regional Championship winning decklist featured a playset of Monstrous Rage, the second place decklist only ran two copies. In their place, you’ll find a couple extra pieces of interaction, such as two maindeck Torch the Tower.
The final Izzet Prowess decklist in the top eight ran zero copies of Monstrous Rage while also eschewing Slickshot Show-Off entirely! The pilot of this decklist opted for a This Town Ain’t Big Enough package to provide extra grinding power.
This decision to focus on Thundertrap Trainer and This Town Ain’t Big Enough over Monstrous Rage and Slickshot Show-Off wasn’t an uncommon choice, either. Many players went down this route, and the win rate of this version of Izzet Prowess and the more aggressive variants were nearly identical. This suggests that a Monstrous Rage ban would likely fall short of expectations.
As such, some players have pointed out that they believe the issues Standard is facing are more systemic and not driven by just a couple cards. One player mentioned that Monstrous Rage is banned in Alchemy while Heartfire Hero got nerfed, and now Izzet Prowess makes up a big percentage of the metagame regardless.
Alchemy and Standard obviously have their differences. Still, this trend showcases that with so many elite threats available to the mono-red decks, red decks can adjust accordingly to a small subset of bans that get thrown their way.
Perhaps the biggest issue Standard has right now is that the threats simply outpace the interaction. This problem will only get worse come the looming rotation. Go for the Throat, Temporary Lockdown, and Cut Down are all set to leave Standard come rotation, while all the powerful Mice, Screaming Nemesis Slickshot Show-Off, and Cori-Steel Cutter stick around.
Red decks seem poised to crush the competition for months to come. There’s still hope that future sets can bring better interaction and help create a more balanced Standard environment. For now, though, you’d better have a solid gameplan for Izzet Prowess and mono-red, or you’ll end up on the backfoot in no time.