Tarkir: Dragonstorm feels like a true return to form for MTG. After what’s felt like a very long time, fans have finally been given a proper return to a classic MTG plane. As if that wasn’t fun and nostalgic enough, this set is also loaded with powerful new soon-to-be staples. Unsurprisingly, many MTG players have been rather keen to get their hands on these powerful new cards.
On top of the Tarkir: Dragonstorm cards shaking up the meta, there are also plenty of new Commander synergies. While these have been somewhat overshadowed by the release of Deadpool, Trading Card, they’re now getting their time to shine. For better or worse, this reclaimed spotlight is also resulting in numerous price spikes thanks to increasing demand.
Sapling of Colfenor
First released 17 years ago in Eventide, Sapling of Colfenor is hardly the most popular MTG card in existence. According to its stats on EDHREC, it’s played in less than 10,000 decks, which isn’t hugely surprising. While Colfener is seeing a surge of popularity now, it’s still bad in a lot of, if not most, Commander decks.
Essentially, Sapling of Colfenor punishes you for not playing a Toughness Matters deck. If you reveal a high-power creature off the top of your library with its ability, then it’ll hurt at least a little bit. While this can be easily avoided with proper deck construction, the result isn’t even that amazing.
At best, Sapling of Colfenor offers a moderate amount of life gain and an extra card when it attacks. While Colfenor is Indestructible, you could do a lot better for six mana in Golgari colors. Within a Felothar the Steadfast deck, however, Colfenor can do real work and prove especially powerful.
As the primary Commander in the Abzan Armor precon, Felothar already helms a fairly competent Toughness Matters deck. Sapling of Colfenor is an easy upgrade to this deck, especially thanks to Betor, Ancestor’s Voice. As if being an Indestructible 5/5 with added card draw isn’t enough, Beter turns the life-gain into +1/+1 counters.
All this is to say that Sapling of Colfenor is a fantastic upgrade to the Abzan Armor precon. This card fits so well, in fact, that it’s a wonder Wizards didn’t decide to reprint Colfenor within the deck’s 99. Since this didn’t happen, there’s unsurprisingly been a rush to acquire copies of Sapling of Colfenor, which has led to this price spike.
The Spike
Since Sapling of Colfenor’s first appearance in Eventide all those years ago, the card has only been reprinted once. Reappearing in Commander 2021, it’s safe to say that Colfenor isn’t exactly the most widely available card in existence. Despite this, it’s not the card’s older and rarer variant that has been spiking recently.
Instead, the major spike that we’ve seen recently is near-enough isolated to the Commander 2021 variant. Curiously, the extra demand for this variant likely comes from the extra supply since near-mint copies are more attainable. While Eventide copies do have a bit more nostalgic flare, most players care more about having cards in good condition.
To that end, there’s been a massive rush for the Commander 2021 copies from when the Abzan Armour Commanders were revealed. On March 18th, especially, there was an enormous surge in sales with over 120 copies being snapped up. Unsurprisingly, this strained the available supply of the card, priming its inevitable price spike.
While it took some time to finally arrive, the price of Sapling of Colfenor would eventually soar to $3.38 on average. Currently, near-mint condition listings for the card start at $4.50, and that’s not even including shipping. With Colfenor originally selling for just $0.46 before its sales surge, the card has seen a 878% price spike so far.
Currently, the Eventide variant of Sapling of Colfenor is selling for around the same price, with listings starting at $4.33. Despite this similar price point, this variant has only seen a 207% price spike. This is thanks to its higher starting price of $1.41, which is undoubtedly down to this variant’s increased rarity.
The Future
Looking ahead, I can’t imagine that Sapling of Colfenor will end up staying expensive for too long. While this card is undoubtedly a great update to Abzan Armor, this deck is unlikely to be popular forever. In fact, with the Final Fantasy MTG set on the horizon, it’s highly likely that tastes will change sooner than usual.
Once attention does shift to the new exciting precons on the horizon, Sapling of Colfenor will go back to being just okay. There is a chance it will retain some of its increased value, but that’ll depend on the popularity of the Toughness Matters archetype. Thankfully, this metric should have received a decent boost from the fun new toys the archetype has just received.
Ultimately, as always, it’s impossible to predict the future properly, even if we can make assumptions based on trends. There’s a non-zero chance that this price spike will increase for a short while as players continue to pick up relevant upgrades. Whether or not this will happen, however, remains to be seen for now.
For better or worse, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens in the coming days and weeks. All we know for now is that anyone looking to pick up Sapling of Colfenor now is late to the party.